Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 08 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 and 10 November. On 11 November, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to move into geoeffective position causing unsettled to active conditions with minor storm periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

Class M 05/05/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Nov 079

Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 080/080/075

90 Day Mean 08 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 006/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 005/008-008/010-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/20/25

Minor storm 05/10/15

Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/35

Minor storm 10/10/20

Major-severe storm 01/01/10