Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 09 2252 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 820 (S16W81) produced a

C1 flare at 09/0301 UTC. A erupting solar filament was observed on EIT imagery between 09/1948 UTC and 09/2148 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 820. Region 820 is due to rotate off the visible disk by 10 November.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 November. Unsettled to active conditions are possible on 11 November due to a coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position. On 12 November, mostly unsettled conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

Class M 05/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 09 Nov 078

Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 09 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 008/010-010/020-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/35/25

Minor storm 10/20/10

Major-severe storm 01/10/01