Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S06E66) produced an M2.5 flare at 13/1451 UTC, and several C-class events in the last 24 hours. This group is the only spotted region on the solar disk and is still to close to the limb for a detailed analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 822 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind averaged around 420 km/s with the IMF Bz fluctuating between +1 to -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 088
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/008-008/010-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01