Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 822 (S07E15) produced numerous B-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest of these included a B5.8/Sf event occurring at 17/0143Z and a B6.6 event occurring at 17/0314Z. A slight growth in the number of sunspots was observed during this period. This region remains a beta-gamma spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 18-19 November. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 20 November.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 101
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/007 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05