Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Nov 29 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 824

(S14W48) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4/Sf event occurring at 29/1709Z. This region has seen only slight decay since yesterday. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 824 has the capability of producing an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through 30 November. Minor storm conditions with a chance for isolated high latitude major storm periods are possible on 01 and 02 December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 29 Nov 085

Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 085/085/085

90 Day Mean 29 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/009

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 003/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 012/015-015/020-012/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes

Active 25/30/25

Minor storm 10/15/10

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/40/40

Minor storm 15/25/25

Major-severe storm 10/15/15