|
Energy Information Administration - 10/13/05
Generation: In July 2005, the persistently hot, humid weather created such demand for power that several regions reported all-time peak electricity loads. As a result, generation in July 2005 (401.3 billion kilowatthours) was the highest on record, eclipsing the previous record of 381.8 billion kilowatthours produced in August 2003. Generation in July 2005 was 5.1 percent higher than the August 2003 level. Records were also set for coal-fired generation (186.0 billion kilowatthours) and gas-fired generation (96.5 billion kilowatthours), up 2.7 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively, when compared to July 2004. For the same period, increased generation from petroleum liquids (up 5.9 percent) and petroleum coke (up 23.5 percent) was also used to meet the high demand for electricity. Hydroelectric generation was up 12.1 percent as compared to July 2004, aided by a return to a more normal precipitation pattern. Nuclear generation continues to lag 2004 and is now 2.9 percent lower year-to-date. The lower output from baseload nuclear plants (due to a greater amount of lost capacity than in 2004 as a result of planned and unplanned maintenance activities) is another factor contributing to the use of natural gas and petroleum. Year-to-date hydroelectric generation is up by 6.3 percent. Through July 2005, monthly hydroelectric generation continued to exceed the 2004 monthly levels for six of the seven months of the year. In mid-June the National Weather Service predicted stable or improving precipitation conditions for most of the country through September, suggesting that hydroelectric output will continue to outpace 2004 levels throughout the summer (see: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html). Consumption of Fuels: Comparing July 2004 to July 2005, the consumption of coal and natural gas for electric power generation increased by 2.9 percent and 24.3 percent, respectively, closely tracking the change in coal-fired and gas-fired generation. The same was true of consumption of petroleum liquids (up 5.9 percent) and consumption of petroleum coke (up 21.1 percent). Year-to-date, fuel consumption for electric power generation has increased for most fuels. Coal consumption increased by 1.4 percent, natural gas consumption increased by 6.1 percent and petroleum coke consumption increased by 12.3 percent. Petroleum liquid consumption was the exception, declining by 19.0 percent relative to the prior period. Sectoral Distribution of Generation and Consumption of Fuels: During July 2005, 61.4 percent of electric power generation was produced at utility power plants, 34.9 percent by independent power producers (IPPs), and the remainder at industrial and commercial combined heat and power plants (CHPs). Utility-operated power plants consumed 74.5 percent of the coal for electric power generation, compared to 24.4 percent by IPPs. Also, utilities consumed 58.2 percent of the petroleum liquids, compared to 37.9 percent by IPPs. While utilities accounted for the largest share of coal and petroleum liquids consumption, the reverse was true for natural gas, with IPPs consuming 55.3 percent of the gas compared to 35.6 percent by utilities. The balance of coal, petroleum liquids and gas consumption was attributable to industrial and commercial plants. Year-to-date utility power plants produced 63.2 percent of the electric power in the Nation, while IPPs contributed 32.7 percent. The remaining 4.0 percent was generated primarily by industrial combined heat and power plants (Figure 3). Year-to-date, utility operated plants consumed 74.7 percent of the coal, 33.1 percent of the natural gas, and 57.9 percent of liquid petroleum used to generate electric power. IPPs consumed 24.1 percent of the coal, 54.4 percent of the natural gas, and 36.0 percent of the liquid petroleum for electric power generation. Industrial CHP plants consumed the balance of fossil fuels for electric power generation. Fuel Stocks, July 2005 Record coal generation and consumption contributed to an 8.7 percent drop in coal stocks from June 2005. Total coal stocks continue to run lower than in 2004; stocks in July 2005 were 6.2 million tons (5.5 percent) below July 2004 levels. Review of the data indicates that stocks of bituminous coal are actually larger than in 2004, but subbituminous stocks are about 20 percent lower, largely due to slowdowns in rail service from the Powder River Basin coal fields in Wyoming that began in May 2005. Stocks of petroleum liquids, which are usually stable, dropped by 9.4 percent between June and July of 2005, to 39.3 million barrels. Petroleum liquid stocks have not been below 40 million barrels since February 2002. The run-down in stocks, due to plants burning fuel oil out of inventory without purchasing replacement supplies, is likely due to operators reacting to current high prices.
Fuel Costs and Receipts, June 2005 The average price paid for natural gas by electricity generators in June was $6.84 per MMBtu (Table ES2.B.). This was 2.4 percent higher than the May price of $6.68 per MMBtu, and 7.9 percent higher than the June 2004 price of $6.34 per MMBtu. The average price paid for petroleum liquids was $7.28 per MMBtu in June, an 8.3 percent increase when compared with the $6.72 per MMBtu price in May and 36.8 percent more than in June 2004. The average price of coal to electricity generators in May was $1.54 per MMBtu, unchanged from the May price and up 14.9 percent from June 2004. Year-to-date through June 2005, the average price paid for natural gas by electricity generators was $6.67 per MMBtu, an increase of 13.4 percent from the same period in 2004. This increase continues to be on par with the increases in the average natural gas wellhead and city gate prices seen at the national level. As crude oil and refined petroleum prices have risen during the year, the average price of petroleum liquids delivered to electric generators has risen commensurately. Year-to-date petroleum liquid prices are $6.48 per MMBtu, an increase of $1.49 per MMBtu (the largest increase in fossil fuels) or 29.9 percent compared to the same period in 2004. Coal prices averaged $1.51 per MMBtu for the first six months of the year, up 14.4 percent from the same period in 2004. Retail Sales, Revenue, and Average Retail Price, July 2005 The record high demand for electricity in July 2005 required careful coordination by the country’s electric grid operators. The PJM Interconnection (PJM), the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (MISO), ISO New England, Inc. (ISO-NE) the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwestern Power Pool, Inc. (SPP) each reported record peak demands. Together these entities supply wholesale power to about 48 percent of the U.S. population. On July 26, 2005 PJM reported a record peak demand of about 135,000 megawatts of electricity (for the full article refer to: http://www.pjm.com/contributions/news-releases/2005/20050810-cooperation-among-electric-grid-operators.pdf). Sales: Electricity suppliers had to meet extraordinary demands in July 2005. Total retail sales exceeded the previous monthly sales record, established in August 2003, by 5.2 percent. Retail electricity sales for July 2005 increased by 6.9 percent over July 2004 and were 11.4 percent higher than the June 2005 sales. The largest jump in sales from July 2004 to 2005 occurred in the residential sector, up 15.0 billion kilowatthours or 11.6 percent, (consistent with the increase in cooling degree days from July 2004 to July 2005, reflective of the increased use of home and office space conditioning equipment). Over the same period, electricity sales for the commercial sector were up 6.0 percent and industrial sales increased by 1.5 percent. Year-to-date, electricity sales were up 2.0 percent from the same period last year. Revenue: Electricity revenues for July 2005 increased 13.2 percent over July 2004 (see average retail price explanation below). The July 2005 residential sector revenues increased 16.2 percent while commercial and industrial revenues were 10.6 percent and 10.7 percent higher, respectively, than in July 2004. Year-to-date, 2005 revenues increased 6.7 percent over the same period in 2004. Average Retail Price: Average retail prices for 2005 continued the trend of outpacing 2004 prices. Factors contributing to price increases at the retail level were the decrease in the year-to-date availability of base-load nuclear generation and the increased usage of petroleum and natural gas for electricity generation. In July 2005 the average retail electricity price rose 5.8 percent to 8.52 cents per kilowatthour as compared to July 2004. The residential sector experienced the highest average price of electricity at 9.73 cents per kilowatthour while the industrial sector was the lowest at 5.96 cents per kilowatthour. The 2005 average retail price of electricity January through July 2005 was 7.83 cents per kilowatthour, 4.5 percent higher than the same period in 2004 (Figure 4). Hurricane Katrina During late August and early September 2005, Hurricane Katrina disrupted the lives of residents living in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Tennessee. The damage began on August 26, when Hurricane Katrina, at the Category 1 level, crossed over Florida and caused the loss of power to over 1.2 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The majority of the outages were in the southeastern counties of Broward and Dade with 489,000 and 705,000 customer outages, respectively. On August 27, the hurricane reached a Category 3 level and forecasts indicated that it would strike the Louisiana Gulf Coast by mid-day Monday. In anticipation of this landfall, the Waterford 3 nuclear Power Plant declared an “Unusual Event” and shut down. On August 28, Katrina made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. By 9 am, over 381,000 customers in Louisiana had lost power to the storm that now stretched to the Florida panhandle, taking out an additional 11,000 customers in Escambia County even as restoration was reducing the count of customer outages to 314,000 in South Florida. By the morning of August 29, over 2.1 million customers were reported to be without power due to Katrina in Louisiana (over 960,000), Mississippi (over 510,000), Alabama (over 325,000), and Florida (over 380,000, with two additional counties suffering the impact). As Hurricane Katrina moved northward, more customers located in the northern parts of the states of Louisiana and Mississippi and in the states of Georgia and Tennessee also lost power. At the end of August, over 2.3 million customers were without service and extensive flooding became a major issue for electrical restoration. Some of the associated problems included inaccessibility to equipment, saltwater infiltration, and the sheer unprecedented scope of the damage. Mississippi Power estimated that about 70 percent of its 8,000 miles of transmission and distribution lines would have to be repaired or replaced. The Mississippi Electric Power Association estimated that over 50,000 member-owned utility poles were destroyed. |