The NOAA sought to clarify the US Energy Information Administration's characterization of heating degree-days expected this winter. Heating degree days, which indicate household energy consumption for space heating, are calculated from the difference between 65 degrees Fahrenheit and the average of the high and low temperatures of a particular winter day.

The EIA said at its annual winter outlook conference that NOAA "projects a 0.4 percent colder winter in the lower 48 states, in terms of heating degree-days relative to normal winter weather, which would be 3.2 percent colder than last winter." The EIA, whose winter season is October through March, meant to say colder "with respect to last year," Laver said.

NOAA's nationwide heating degree-days forecast for the six-month period showed all the months except March would be cooler than last winter. The forecast also showed it will be slightly warmer than normal in October through December, then become even more mild than normal in January and February.

March 2006 -- the very end of the heating season -- will be close to normal and warmer than March 2005, NOAA said.

NOAA's seasonal forecast said the Midwest and East Coast have "equal chances" of warmer, cooler or near-normal temperatures in those three months.

The EIA report also said overall US demand for natural gas would fall about 1.2 percent in 2005 due to sharply higher prices. Industrial demand for natural gas will tumble nearly 8 percent from last year due to fuel-switching because of price, it said.

In 2006, overall US demand for gas will rise 3 percent, with industrial demand increasing 6 percent, the EIA said.

"The industrial rebound in 2006 is partly because of assumed reactivation of damaged industrial plants in the Gulf of Mexico region but also reflects renewed fuel demand growth as domestic industrial plants adjust to higher prices," it said.

The price of Henry Hub spot market gas will average about $9 per mcf in 2005, then fall slightly in 2006, the EIA said. "Henry Hub prices are likely to remain above $12 per mcf until peak winter demand is over," it added.

The EIA report also said US gas production in 2005 would fall by 3 percent, due largely to disruptions caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In 2006, output should rise by 4.2 percent, it said.

Net imports of gas will rise marginally this year, then soar by 10.4 percent in 2006, it said. Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will total an estimated 680 bcf in 2005, then top 1,000 Bcf in 2006.