Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 03 October. Activity is expected to increase to low levels with isolated M-flares possible on 04 and 05 October due to the return of old Region 808 (S09, L=232). Region 808 produced a total of 13 major flares (M5 or greater) during its last transit across the visible disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were due to extended intervals of southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct

Class M 10/25/25

Class X 01/05/05

Proton 01/01/05

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 02 Oct 075

Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 080/085/090

90 Day Mean 02 Oct 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/010-008/010-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01