Issued: 2005 Oct 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity levels were very low again this period.

Old active Region 808 is rotating on the southeast limb near S10.

This was a very active region during its last passage across the visible disk; however, there has been no significant eruptive activity observed over the past few days.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is possible from old Region 808 as it rotates into view on 04 October. There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct

Class M 15/15/15

Class X 05/05/05

Proton 01/01/05

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 Oct 074

Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 080/085/085

90 Day Mean 03 Oct 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/013

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 008/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 008/007-008/007-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 25/25/25

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01