Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Oct 04 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Old active Region 808 (S10, L=232) is rotating into view on the southeast limb and still appears relatively complex. Several B-class flares were observed including a long-duration B7 flare at 04/0622Z. This long-duration event was associated with a prominence eruption and CME on the southeast limb. A large loop structure was also observed near this location on EIT imagery. Newly numbered Region 813
(S06E30) emerged this period as a moderately complex and compact beta-gamma group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Old Region 808, which is currently rotating onto the visible disk, may produce C-class activity. Newly numbered Region 813 also has C-class flare potential. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 05 October. Isolated unsettled to active periods are possible on 06 and 07 October.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 20/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 083
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/005-008/008-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01