Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred in newly numbered Region 814 (S06W11). This flare occurred in the large plage field associated with old Region 808. A new small bipolar spot group emerged in the northeast quadrant of the plage field. A Type II radio sweep (437 km/s) also occurred with this flare.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare in newly numbered Region 814.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed has declined from 650 km/s to near 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 11 Oct 078

Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 080/085/085

90 Day Mean 11 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 01/01/01

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/25

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01