Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 13 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No active regions appear on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions are possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole associated solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 13 Oct 078

Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 13 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/010-008/012-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/25/25

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 30/35/35

Minor storm 15/20/20

Major-severe storm 01/05/05