Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A new region, numbered 815 (N08E75), appeared on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, with unsettled to active conditions possible on 15-16 October as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 078
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05