Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 17 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (18-20 October).

III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 17 Oct 078

Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 080/080/080

90 Day Mean 17 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 012/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 10/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/15/15

Minor storm 15/10/10

Major-severe storm 05/01/01