Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 816 (S14W29) emerged on the disk today as a simple B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. There is a chance for isolated active periods on the third day (22 Oct) due to a favorably-positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 078
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/008-005/005-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/10