Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 21 Oct. Unsettled conditions, with a chance for active periods, are expected for 22-23 Oct, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 077
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-010/012-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/10/10