Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2005 Oct 23 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. Region 817 (N04E21), containing a unipolar sunspot, was numbered today. Region 815 (N07W45) continues to decay, with no sunspots reported.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 23 Oct 074

Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 23 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 007/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/012-012/012-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

Active 30/30/30

Minor storm 15/15/15

Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

Active 35/35/35

Minor storm 20/20/20

Major-severe storm 10/10/10