Once a foe, Russia may be poised to become the United
States' most reliable energy partner. Producing close to 9
million barrels a day of oil, production there could soon
surpass that of Saudi Arabia, which produces 9.5 billion
barrels of oil a day.
Russia may have lost the Cold War but it's out to regain
respect by leveraging its oil and gas reserves. Its 350
billion barrels of such reserves are the world's largest and
President Vladimir Putin wants to use those resources to bring
his country into the modern world and to increase its
influence on global concerns. With war and political turmoil
plaguing the Middle East, Russia and some other nations of the
former Soviet Union have become increasingly luring as a
source for oil and gas. And in those areas, more than half the
reserves remain untapped.
"Today, with oil more than $60 a barrel, the returns are
above normal," says David Zaiken, CEO of Siberian Energy,
which is a U.S.-based company with all of its assets in
Russia. "That's why the Russian government can spend enough
money to support increased production." Zaiken, whose
publicly-traded exploration company is expected to own 1.3
million acres in Western Siberia and begin drilling in the
coming months, says that Russia is geared up to increase
production to 11 million barrels a day.
Just two years ago on Oct. 25, 2003, the Russian investment
climate seemed in disarray. Western capitalists watched as
Mikhail Khodorkovsky -- formerly CEO of Yukos and Russia's
wealthiest man -- was arrested and indicted for his alleged
role in stealing national wealth. Many outsiders construed the
events as harsh and unwelcoming -- the settling of a political
vendetta at the expense of winning foreign capital.
But Russian-born Zaiken says that the matter is far more
complicated. When President Putin came to power in 2000, he
summoned to the Kremlin the nation's oligarchs that controlled
70 percent of Russia's finances. In essence, he made them a
deal that if they stayed away from politics then he would not
interfere with their businesses. All apparently abided by this
code, except Khodorkovsky. He supposedly was determined to
prop up the old-line Communists and others in the legislative
Duma who had been running the country for 70 years prior to
Democracy, says Zaiken.
Putin didn't just fire back at Khodorkovsky, who was
convicted in May 2005 and sentenced to nine years in prison.
The president made sure the Russian government regained
control of Yukos. Yukos, which is the biggest oil producer in
the country and the fourth largest in the world, was purchased
by Khodorkovsky and others for pennies on the dollar in the
mid 1990s. But late last year, Yukos' major asset that
comprises 40-50 percent of the company, was sold to Rosneft, a
government-owned oil enterprise. At the same time, Sibneft,
which was Russia's fifth largest oil producer and which had
been controlled by another powerful oligarch, was sold to
government-owned Gazprom.
New Reassurance
Western investors are left to wonder whether Russia's
corporate community is still battling the Kremlin. According
to Zaiken, Putin's government said it acted out of necessity
-- the preservation of both economic fairness and the
maintenance of sound government, all in the wake of oligarchs
who were extending their sphere of influence.
The Kremin has learned that its actions were misunderstood
and that it failed to properly explain them to Westerners, he
adds. While such moves have alienated the Western world,
Zaiken insists that the government there is back on track and
that investors can be reassured Putin won't create the same
false illusions again.
"The chances are less than one percent," says Zaiken. "We
know why the Yukos affair happened. We know why it didn't
happen to other companies. We know the role it has played with
the current investment climate." He points to UK-based BP,
which formed a joint venture with privately-owned Russian oil
giant TNK. BP has said the economic situation has improved and
that the Yukos incident was an isolated event. At the same
time, all the ratings services now give Russia investment
grade bond ratings.
Indeed, foreign investors are feeling a bit more welcome.
ChevronTexaco said it would consider investing up to $10
billion in Russia. Meantime, Russia's Lukoil Holdings sold a
7.8 percent ownership stake to ConocoPhillips for nearly $2
billion. The American company says it would like to acquire up
to 20 percent. Meantime, ExxonMobil now has a 30 percent stake
in Sakhalin-1 that holds 2.3 billion barrels of oil and 17
trillion cubic feet of natural gas while Shell holds a notable
stake in Sakhalin-2.
To be sure, Russia is still an uncertain investment.
Foreign companies cannot own more than half of any enterprise
there while restrictions also exist as it relates to major oil
and gas auctions. In cases where there are more than 100
millions tons of oil or gas to be produced and eventually sold
only Russian companies can bid. Some experts say that rules
are formalities, given that it's not wise to enter an emerging
market alone and that partnering is the best way to learn
about government and culture.
In any event, the United States would like access to
Russia's oil fields as well as its pipelines. It's already
hard at work getting pipelines constructed along the Caspian
Sea and along Turkey's Mediterranean coast to help feed
America's energy appetite. Becoming active investors also
provides access to a plethora of oil and gas resources and
some ability to influence corporate affairs. Russia,
meanwhile, wants to double the size of its gross domestic
product by 2010 and it recognizes that the goal would be
impossible without foreign investment.
Transparent Processes
Russia is working toward achieving its goal, says Siberian
Energy's Zaiken. Like others, he predicts that the country
will become the world's top oil producer by 2009. Production
there is growing by 10 percent annually. More access to
Russian oil would ease the supply crunch and hence the current
high prices. At the same time, the United States wants to wean
itself from Middle Eastern oil dependence.
"Saudi Arabia is under constant threat," he says. "I'm sure
the U.S. will bring in more oil and especially more liquefied
natural gas from Russia. The Russian government is ready to
take it to the next level. Hopefully, the American government
and big business will recognize that Russia brings a
transparent structure to the table and we can discuss more
mega-projects with Westerners. Russian assets are undervalued
right now."
Russia has made real progress, especially remarkable since
the Iron Curtain once blocked any access to it. Ideal
partnerships would not just bring together businesses' capital
resources but they would also harness their technological
expertise and create forward momentum in terms of linking the
futures of Russia and the global community.
For far more extensive news on the energy/power
visit: http://www.energycentral.com
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