WASHINGTON - The brutal 2005 hurricane season may have more unpleasant shocks in store for coastal areas reeling from an almost unprecedented run of vicious storms, including deadly Hurricane Katrina and this weekend's powerful Rita.
"We're still in the peak of the season here, that goes for another month or so. (It) makes me think that not only will we have more storms and hurricanes, but we could have another major hurricane or two," said Max Mayfield, director of the US National Hurricane Center, on CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, although the peak of the season ends in mid- to late October. Each year produces an average of 11 tropical storms or hurricanes, of which two become severe hurricanes.
But this year, due to warm seas and other conditions favorable to storm development, forecasters had predicted up to 21 tropical storms or hurricanes.
There have been 17 so far, and five have been "major" hurricanes, of Category 3 or higher on forecasters five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.
Katrina and Rita were among the most intense Category 5 hurricanes ever recorded. Rita made landfall in Texas as a Category 3, Katrina hit Louisiana on Aug. 29 as a Category 4.
Together, the two storms knocked out nearly all energy production in the Gulf of Mexico and 30 percent of the nation's refining capacity onshore. Katrina killed more than 1,000 people and left New Orleans in ruins.
Mayfield said the Atlantic is in a cycle of more intense storm activity, similar to what occurred in the 1950s, which research meteorologists say could last another 10 to 20 years.
In 2004 there were 15 tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic. The busiest year recently was 1995, with 19.
Mayfield said this year and last seemed to have had far more storms make landfall in the United States or Caribbean than usual. "It seems like this year all but three or maybe four of them have impacted land," he said.
The US National Hurricane Center downgraded Rita to a tropical depression and its remnants were dumping heavy rain on Arkansas as they moved north on Sunday.
The increased number of intense storms has fueled a debate over whether global warming is raising the risk from hurricanes, by raising sea temperatures and making them more intense.
Story by Patricia Zengerle
REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
