An old adage says there are no problems just opportunities. If that
applies to high gas prices and concern over air quality standards, then
both consumers and carmakers might just have nothing but road ahead.
Today the marketplace offers cars that get better gas mileage and
pollute less.
|
Ken
Silverstein
EnergyBiz Insider
Editor-in-Chief |
Enter hybrid vehicles, which run on both a gas engine and
electric-powered batteries. More efficient production and longer battery
times are helping to bring down the costs of fuel and maintenance--a
trend that may make such cars competitive with petroleum-fueled ones by
the end of the decade. Indeed, such vehicles are marketed as combining
the best features of internal combustion engines and electric batteries,
resulting in superior gas mileage and without hurting performance.
"I think hybrids have enormous promise," says Alfred Marcus,
professor of strategic management at the University of Minnesota in
Minneapolis. "Unlike hydrogen-based cars, this hybrid technology is not
an enormous technological stretch. If the U.S. had a goal that 50
percent of all vehicles on the road in 10 years would be some form of
hybrid, gasoline consumption could go down by a quarter."
At present, hybrids make up less than one percent of the total number
of cars on all U.S. roads. But with the highest-ever gas prices, their
prospects look good. In this country, hybrid registrations at state
motor vehicle offices indicate an 81 percent increase from 2003 to 2004.
Specifically and according to RL Polk & Co. that tracks such things,
there were nearly 46,000 hybrids registered in 2003 and more than 83,000
registered in 2004. Their numbers are expected to continue increasing.
Hybrid vehicles can vary from smaller gas efficient ones to sports
utility vehicles that place more emphasis on performance. Toyota has 64
percent of the market while Honda has 31 percent, says JD Power and
Associates. Those companies say their models get 50 miles to the gallon
compared to about 30 miles to the gallon for conventional gas engines.
Altogether, there are about 10 different hybrid models that are being
made in 2005. Within five years, such cars are expected to comprise as
many as 20 percent of auto sales.
But what about cars that use fuel cells? "Clearly, fuel cell vehicles
are not currently economically feasible," says Ali Emadi, director of
Advanced Automotive Systems at Illinois Institute of Technology in
Chicago. "In addition, their overall efficiency is less than hybrids.
Therefore, hybrids are going to be more and more popular every year. In
fact, I believe that this is the trend not only for the short term, but
also for the long term."
Hybrids use an internal combustion engine that runs on petroleum.
But, unlike conventional cars, they convert energy during braking or
coasting and store that in a battery used by the electric motor. That
conversion process is using energy that is normally wasted by all gas
cars. That's why hybrids get better gas mileage in the city.
A key issue is that the hybrids cost about $3,500 to $5,000 more than
traditional cars and the gas savings don't stretch that much unless the
car is kept a long time. Professor Marcus says that if gas prices remain
around $2.50 a gallon, the pay-off for motorists would take five to
seven years.
To motivate consumers, the U.S. government gives buyers of hybrids a
$2,000 tax deduction, although that number is to be gradually whittled
down until it is phased out. Beyond that, many states give additional
tax incentives to hybrid owners. And certain states such as California
and seven in the Northeast are seeking to cut greenhouse gas emissions
by cars 30 percent within 11 years.
The Challenges
Certainly, hybrid vehicles are a relatively new innovation and as
such, carry some risks. Critics say that hybrids have gained traction in
the last three years and that no one really knows how well such cars
will perform over several years. Batteries are an expensive component of
these cars and some consumers worry about the cost of replacing them
once warranties run out.
Battery packs currently run $4,900, although any replacement may only
involve "modules" that cost much less. Moreover, carmakers insist that
the price of these batteries will only decline once these autos gain
greater market share. At the same time, oil prices are always
fluctuating and they may drop precipitously, making hybrids less
attractive to some consumers worried about a faster return on their
investment.
Companies such as Nissan Motor Co. are not yet convinced that hybrids
have arrived. "They make a nice story but they are not a good business
story yet because the value is lower than their costs," says Carlos
Ghosn, CEO of the carmaker, in a public statement. That said, Nissan is
producing a hybrid for sale in California only--to meet strict new air
quality standards set by regulators there. Ghosn doesn't expect the car
to be profitable.
Hybrid technologies will only get cheaper and better. At some point
in the near term, batteries will be re-chargeable from an electrical
outlet. Then, a hybrid could get as much as 100 miles to the gallon, say
experts. Scientists and manufacturers are working on this. Utility
industry research arm EPRI and Daimler-Chrysler are developing a
so-called plug-in hybrid electric version of one of the carmaker's
trucks.
"Thanks to their bigger battery, plug-in hybrid vehicles can operate
just like electric vehicles, in all-electric mode for a significant
range (for example, 20-40 miles); beyond that range, they operate like
hybrid electric vehicles," says Palo Alto-based EPRI. "Plug-in hybrid
vehicles can be zero-emission vehicles in sensitive air quality areas.
Plug-in hybrid vehicles should be of high interest to electric
utilities," it adds, noting electricity loads would grow with market
penetration.
In the long term, fuel cells that combine hydrogen and oxygen to make
electricity might be the solution to reducing oil consumption. And while
just about every auto manufacturer is working on this, the idea is at
least 15 to 20 years from fruition. For now, if drivers want to reduce
their gas bills and emit fewer pollutants while driving, they can either
choose to buy smaller cars or hybrid vehicles.
For far more extensive news on the energy/power
visit: http://www.energycentral.com
.
Copyright © 1996-2005 by CyberTech,
Inc. All rights reserved.
|