Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07) continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region 803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event from region 806.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in response to the corotating interaction region that became geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September.
Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August.
Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September, decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 079
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 017/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 025/030-020/025-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/15
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor storm 30/25/10
Major-severe storm 20/15/05