Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity levels increased to moderate this period. A long duration M1 flare and an associated CME was in progress on the southeast limb at the time of this issue. The likely source of this event is old active Region 798 (S09, L=217), which is expected to rotate into view on 07 Sep. Old Region 798 was responsible for significant flare activity during its last transit across the visible disk, and was the likely source of several farside CMEs during the past two weeks. Region 805 (S12W59), the only active region with sunspots on the visible disk, remained quiet this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Old Region 798 is rotating onto the visible disk near S09, and is expected to significantly increase solar activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 Sep.
Isolated active periods are possible on 09 Sep due to a high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 40/50/50
Class X 05/10/10
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 083
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 090/100/105
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05