Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 808 (S11W78) continued its rapid decay phase. Just a few C-class flares occurred, the largest a C3 at 0350 UTC. One new region, Region 811 (S10E00) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was very high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to mildly active.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 20/10/10
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 091
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 010/020-010/015-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05