BP Sees No Fall in Oil Price, Confident in Russia

 

Sun August 1, 2004 9:17 PM GMT-04:00

 

LONDON (Reuters) - The head of oil giant BP expects no significant short-term fall in oil prices but said on Sunday he did not foresee a further spike higher either.

BP Chief Executive John Browne said political insecurity was keeping prices buoyed but said he was confident about his firm's position in Russia.

"What with insecurity of supply, the price seems to be holding up quite high," Browne told BBC Television. "One day it will come down, but not in the very short term I'm afraid.

"I doubt it will spike very much higher," he added.

IPE Brent futures soared above $40 a barrel to fresh 14-year highs on Friday. September Brent last traded 77 cents firmer at $40.02 a barrel, just down from a session peak of $40.05, which was the highest level since the October 1990 all-time peak of $40.95 in the build-up to the first Gulf War.

OPEC leaders were probably surprised about how high prices had climbed, Browne said.

"The price today is probably higher than they had expected ... because there is a little bit of premium in there for insecurity in the world," he said.

CONFIDENT ON RUSSIA, NOT IRAQ

But Browne was confident about Russia, where BP has a burgeoning joint venture.

Browne said Russia had come a long way in a short time but that the rule of law could not yet be totally relied upon. BP was in a secure position, however, he said.

"We are needed there because we bring modernity to the oil industry, we are bringing huge influence on corporate governance and an enormous amount of technology," he said.

He said the trial of the founder of Russian oil major Yukos was more to do with politics than the industry.

"Yukos is a special circumstance. It is about ... what Yukos was doing outside its own activity in the political sphere," Browne said. "Clearly this is something to do with Khodorkovsky, not I think with Yukos itself."

Mikhail Khodorkovsky is on trial for tax evasion and fraud, and could go to jail for 10 years if convicted.

"Russia does rely on having a relationship with the world which means that it can access capital markets and access technology," Browne said.

The world's second-biggest oil group last week reported a pro-forma net profit for the second quarter up 23 percent from a year ago at $3.908 billion. Earnings were boosted by soaring oil prices and rising production at its new TNK-BP Russian venture.

Security fears, meanwhile, meant BP had no short-term plans to get involved in Iraq's oil industry.

"One day I expect we will be in Iraq. It needs a few things to change, notably security," Browne said.