August 10, 2004

Meteorologists generally acknowledge that in order for an El Nino to develop, sea surface temperatures must show considerable warming before any significant climate changing events can take place. Although not ready to call for a full blown El Nino, such warming conditions are in place which could eventually lead to an El Nino.

"What I have observed is that the sub surface warming in the Pacific has become dramatic in the last month or so," says Scott Yuknis, meteorologist with High Impact Weather, Boston.

The July data shows very warm anomalies in the east central to west central Pacific at the strength level of a typical El Nino. The warming is very strong and moving into the Eastern Pacific.

"Typically when that happens it can trigger the onset of an El Nino, so it will be closely monitored to see if it develops in the next couple of months," said Yuknis.

These anomalies are the warmest they have been since February 2003 and that's the last time an El Nino was in place.

Needless to say the question is what will happen from this point on. Looking back historically, waves of sub surface warmth such as the ones that are in the Pacific now, typically bring on a weak El Nino. "That's what I think will happen. A weak El Nino will try to form over the next several months, but whether it will last through the winter is uncertain," declared Yuknis.

The marginally weak El Nino that Yuknis estimates also has a potential impact on the upcoming tropical storm season. The significance is that tropical cyclone activity which is forecast to be high this season should be lower. El Nino conditions typically means less activity. "I have lowered my estimate of tropical cyclone activity for this season from 14 to 11 storms," he said.

This does not mean that the coastal U.S. is not at risk for during El Nino conditions, the Gulf is typically pretty active.

If a weak El Nino does occur, longer term weather patterns may be impacted. Weak El Ninos have been cold weather producers in the eastern U.S. The El Nino of two years ago did not feature the very warm temperatures in the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru.

Yuknis pointed out that the long term ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle has changed from what it was ten years ago to more mild El Ninos. "So far the current El Nino events are weaker than the ones of the 1980s and 1990s and produce cold in the eastern U.S. rather than warmth everywhere."

Market opportunities may arise from a change in tropical cyclone activity and the possibility of cold winter weather in the East.

"There is no sign at the moment that this new feature of warm Pacific temperatures is going to change anytime soon," he noted.

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