BUENOS AIRES, Argentina — International
experts, searching for ways to break a deadlock with the United States over
climate change, consulted on an array of ideas Monday to lure that No. 1
polluter into a joint effort to control "greenhouse gases," along with
such second-rank emitters as China and India.
A Chinese negotiator said he believed Washington might accept a concept he
favored -- "the bottom-up approach," whereby individual nations decide
what steps they can take to rein in carbon dioxide and other emissions.
That would reverse the "top-down" approach of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol,
which the Bush administration rejects and which sets mandatory targets for
dozens of nations to cut back by 2012 on the gases blamed for global warming.
Environmentalists said, however, that the "bottom-up" approach may
accomplish little.
An annual U.N. conference on climate change was midway through its two weeks
here as representatives of almost 200 nations refined details of Kyoto in formal
sessions, while informally debating how to control emissions beyond 2012.
Official talks on that future framework are expected next year. But since July
the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, a private Washington research group,
has brought together policy-makers and experts from the United States and 14
other nations for closed discussions on the next steps to slow global warming.
At a briefing Monday, the Pew Center's Eliot Diringer said the participants thus
far have agreed that "a future climate approach should aim, No. 1, to
engage major emitters."
The United States is the biggest, emitting 21 percent of the world's greenhouse
gases in 2000, according to a report issued Monday by the Pew Center and the
World Resources Institute of Washington. The No. 2 emitter is China, accounting
for 15 percent of the gases, more than the entire 25-nation European Union's 14
percent.
The Kyoto pact seeks to control six gases that trap heat that otherwise would
escape the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, the most common, is a product of coal-
and oil-burning power plants, automobile exhaust and other fossil fuel-burning
sources.
A scientific consensus, endorsed by a U.N.-sponsored network of climate experts,
blames much of the Earth's temperature rise of recent decades on these
emissions, and warns it will lead to damaging climate disruptions.
Under the Kyoto pact, which takes effect Feb. 16, governments of 30 richer
nations are to set quotas for their industries' emissions to meet specified
national targets. But China, India and other poorer nations were exempted from
Kyoto's short-term targets. President Bush renounced Kyoto in 2001, saying it
would damage the U.S. economy and complaining of the exemptions.
"The rejection by the United States really set off the search for better
ways of doing things," Michael Zambia Cutajar, one of the Pew conferees,
said Monday.
"What seems to be taking shape is a series of feasible options that respond
to different economic and political circumstances," said Cutajar, a Maltese
diplomat who helped oversee the Kyoto negotiations.
The Pew experts, whose formal recommendations are expected next year, have
focused on 15 ideas that might produce a "variable geometry" of
methods for controlling emissions past 2012. The University of Georgia's Dan
Bodansky said methods might vary country to country.
The methods could include reduction targets indexed to national GDPs, allowing
emissions growth commensurate with economic growth, he said, along with targets
designed solely for power plants or other individual economic sectors.
He said some have even proposed purely financial commitments -- pledges by rich
countries not to targets, but to financial commitments to pay for reductions
elsewhere.
Chinese climate negotiator Gao Feng, a Pew participant, endorsed this idea of a
"menu" of options and said he favored the "bottom-up
approach," defined by a Pew paper as each country determining for itself
"what might be technically, economically, socially and politically
acceptable."
Some might make emission reductions mandatory, some voluntary, Gao said, but
"we'd allow countries to take the most appropriate choice for
themselves."
The Bush administration says it's "premature" to discuss post-2012
arrangements. But Gao said he has met informally with U.S. officials, and
"I think that (`bottom-up') might be the only possible way to engage the
United States."
Bill Hare, a climate expert for the environmental group Greenpeace, was
dismissive of such a voluntary approach. "Bottom-up is a euphemism for not
doing much at all beyond what would normally happen," he said.
Source: Associated Press