Japan retains global lead in solar PV capacity
ST URSEN, Switzerland, 2004-12-08 Refocus Weekly
Japan remains the leading country in the world for solar PV, both in terms of new installations and per-capita capacity.
It installed 222,781 kW of new panels last year, to boost its cumulative
total to 859,623 kW, according to a survey of selected countries by the
PhotoVoltaic Power Systems program of the International Energy Agency. That
compares with the 410,300 kW cumulative total in Germany and the 275,200 kW in
the United States.
Of the total in Japan, 777,830 kW is distributed grid-connected power, with
another 2,900 kW in centralized grid-connected capacity. In off-grid
applications, 1,101 kW was in domestic and 77,792 kW in non-domestic use.
On a per capita basis, Japan has 6.74 watts per person, ahead of 4.97 per capita
in Germany, 2.88 in Switzerland, 2.83 in the Netherlands and 2.29 kW in
Australia. The two lowest per-capita countries are Israel at 0.09 watts per
person and the UK at 0.1.
Of the cumulative total of 1.8 GW of PV capacity in the PVPS members, 85% is
based in just three countries. The annual rate of growth has varied between 20%
in 1994 to 40% in 2000, but the growth between 2002 and 2003 was 36% and similar
for the last three years, it explains.
Japan, Germany and U.S. account for 88% of total installations last year and,
“not surprisingly, these are the countries with the continuing generous levels
of grant or tariff support for projects that concentrate on grid-connected
installations in the urban environment.” New support measures in Italy and
Austria have resulted in high levels of activity while, in contrast, “those
countries without such incentives tend to have a lower level of growth which is
mainly concentrated in the off-grid market.” The Netherlands recorded a surge
in growth in 2003 amounting to 43% of the total size of its PV market.
Since 1999, most of the PV capacity has been connected to utility grids although
this is not the case in half of the reporting countries. In Sweden, Norway and
Finland, the most common off-grid applications are vacation cottages, while
Australia, France and Mexico use off-grid PV to provide rural electrification.
In Canada, Israel and Korea, commercial and telecommunications applications are
the dominant application.
“Due to the impact of the large-scale support measures available in some
countries, the proportion of capacity that is connected to the grid continues to
rise, reaching 78% in 2003, up from 74% the previous year,” it notes. Almost
all are distributed systems, while domestic applications account for 39% of
off-grid capacity.
Prices for entire PV systems vary widely and depend on a variety of factors, but
most countries reported a decline in system prices over 2002 with prices for
off-grid applications higher by a factor of two than those for grid-connected
applications (the latter do not require storage). Last year, off-grid system
prices (less than 1 kW) varied from US$8 to $25 per watt, while the installed
price for grid-connected systems was $5 to $7 per watt.
Module prices of $3.50 to $4 per watt “appear achievable in the majority of
countries and nearly all of the major markets,” with indications that the
current lowest price of modules is below $3.
There are several plans for investment in specialized production capacity for PV
solar grade silicon, but the report warns that “the lead times for such
investments may be too long to avoid a temporary lack of low cost feedstock in
the next two years.” A shortage would increase the production cost for PV
modules “but this impact is not likely to be serious if it remains
temporary.”
“Permanent shortage of low cost high-quality silicon would have a more
negative influence on further growth of the industry and higher prices would be
the logical response,” it concludes. “On the one hand, this could have
unpleasant political side effects since the PV market still remains strongly
dependent on politically motivated subsidies, but a shortage of low-cost silicon
may also cause the market structure to alter by changing some of the current
cost differentials between various PV technologies.”
“Climate change policies have raised the profile of renewable energy in
general and security of supply issues have raised political interest in all
domestic and distributed energy supplies, but the implications specifically for
PV remain uncertain,” it notes. “The industry development aspects of PV
(including the opportunities to provide jobs) have received attention with the
publication of a number of ‘technology roadmaps’ and national budgets for PV
“remain strong.”
The annual IEA survey of PV applications and markets are conducted in 20
countries, and is limited to PV applications with a rated power of at least 40
watt. IEA claims the national data are accurate to "10%, although
production and system prices vary “depending on the willingness of the
relevant national PV industry to provide data for the survey.”
This survey is the ninth and provides an overview of PV power systems at the end
of 2003, with trends for the period from 1992 to 2003.
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