After repetitious warnings of overinvestment in new power plant construction,
the central government began taking determined actions to curb the investment
binge by heralding an urgent notice. The government will eradicate unapproved power plant construction projects,
by stopping bank loans to unapproved plants, and by controlling land property
usage and rail transportation. An industry analyst with the Beijing-based CITIC Securities said the move
reflects the government's determination to halt the investment spree. "The government is making tangible measures after rounds of warnings to
stop the excessive investment in power plant construction." Wang said. So far, 120,000 megawatt power plants have begun construction without the
necessary approval, said Xu Dingming, director of the Energy Bureau with the
National Development and Reform Commission last month. The amount accounted for more than 30 per cent of China's total generating
capacity by the end of last year. Most parts of China are currently plagued with electricity supply shortages. But industry insiders project that by 2006 or 2007, the power supply will
suffice the demand, with some areas seeing an oversupply of electric power,
industry sources indicated. Unapproved power plant builders focus their attention on immediate economic
benefits without considering long-term development, said Zhang Guobao,
vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission, at an industry
forum earlier this month. "For example, one small city has built five or six electric power
plants, which is completely irrational for the electric power industry."
Zhang reportedly said on the same occasion. Additionally, the overinvestment in power plant construction will possibly
threaten the balanced market supply and demand by dramatically increasing the
burden of coal supply and rail transportation, industry analysts said. Experts also argue that a surplus, to a moderate extent in electricity power
construction, is normal for the forerunner industry of a country's economy, and
the current heated investment mirrors the natural effect of the market after a
long period of power shortages. The nationwide overhaul of power plant construction will deal a heavier blow
to small and medium-sized electricity power providers than to large providers,
said CITIC Securities' Wang Xiaohui. "In light of production scale and operation efficiency, large providers
take an advantaged stance in meeting the standards for power plant construction
approval, because most electricity power plants under construction are of small
and medium size, and have not yet passed the necessary approval." Wang
said. A deputy manager of an electricity power provider in Shandong Province, who
has built many small and medium-sized power plants, told China Daily they would
suffer from a considerable loss resulting from a coming dive in power plant
construction projects. China's five major power conglomerates - Huaneng, China Huadian, China Power
Investment, Datang and China Guodian, are expected to respond in a comparatively
mild tone, according to Wang. Negative impact on the five power providers is expected to concentrate on a
reduction of bank loans, due to the suspension of bank loans to unauthorized
power plant projects, Wei Bin, an analyst with the State Power Economic Research
Centre, told China Daily. Experts say the current restriction on power plant construction will not
intensify the current electricity shortfall, as power plants generally take a
few years to plan and construct, and the elimination of some plant projects will
not render a direct effect to the current power supply. Compared to the little impact on the current power supply, the restriction of
overinvestment may exert some negative effect to China's State banks. The major State banks, including the State Development Bank, the Industrial
and Commercial Bank of China and the China Construction Bank, will stop
providing bank loans for unapproved power plant construction as the central
government ordered. The banks may risk a certain amount of bad debts, if some plant construction
is forced to stop due to an inability to meet the standard, industry analysts
said. Experts suggest the government make cautious considerations when introducing
policies which affect the construction of power plants, because changes in the
pillar power industry will produce significant influence over many other sectors
in the country's economy. Government policy-makers should take three factors into account when making
concrete actions to restrict the overinvestment in building power plants, Wang
said. The three factors include the restriction's possible effects that may
deteriorate the shortage of China's power supply; the chain effect that may
arise from a nationwide prohibition, especially the impact on the banking
system; and lastly, the possible oversupply of electricity power in three to
four years without putting strict rules into effect.
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