by Steve Everly
17-11-04
In a year that has seen oil prices reach record highs, it may seem odd that
producers have been offering discounts to get rid of the stuff. But that has
been happening with crude oil known as "heavy sour," which is
different from the "light sweet crude" whose per-barrel price is most
often quoted as the price of oil. That's good news for US refiners, which are considered to be in a better
position than those in other countries to take advantage of the discounts.
Indeed, earnings announcements by US refiners are singling out the cheaper sour
crude as a major reason for their growing profits.
"I haven't seen anything that the savings have been passed through to
consumers," said Tyson Slocum, research director for the energy program at
Public Citizen, a public interest group in Washington. Worldwide, OPEC estimates that 45 % of refining capacity can use heavy sour
oil. Refineries, for a hefty price, can be upgraded to handle heavy sour. Still,
few expected in 2003 that refineries would soon have to scramble to find light
crude. So, light sweet crude such as West Texas Intermediate remained in relatively
short supply, putting more pressure on the price. In contrast, plenty of sour
crude was on the market, which triggered additional discounts for it. At one
point this year, a barrel of Arab Gulf Dubai heavy sour crude produced in the
United Arab Emirates was $ 18 less than a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the
US benchmark. As the price of light sweet crude has dropped, that gap has
narrowed, and it dipped just below $ 13. "Not withstanding those headlines marking benchmark price levels,
another major but less widely reported market characteristic is the increasing
gap between light sweet and heavy sour grades," according to OPEC's Monthly
Market Report for October. When the price gap widened between sweet and sour crude, US refineries were
better able than most to take advantage of the gap. Refineriesalong the Gulf
Coast, which account for about half of the country's refinery capacity, are
considered the most sophisticated in the world. Venezuela, which is a major
producer of heavy sour oil, became partners in some of those refineries to
ensure a market for its oil. Another indication of the country's increasing use of lower-quality crude oil
is that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is meant to help the United
States in case of a major disruption in oil supplies, is two-thirds sour crude
and one-third sweet crude. The wide difference between sweet and sour crude prices is important to most
US refineries. Valero Energy, the country's third-largest refining company, in a
recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, said a
"significant" percentage of the oil it used was sour crude, and the
difference between sweet and sour crude prices affected its profitability. It can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade a refinery to process
heavy sour, but the current discounts for sour crude are making such investments
look good. However, there are concerns that the costs of converting more US
refineries will be much harder to recoup if the discounts return to levels of
just a year or two ago. Hyatt, of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said
the wider price spreads between light and heavy crude should last through at
least next year. But any reduction in worldwide demand for oil or more supplies
of light sweet crude, which may be possible from Russia and Africa, could cause
the price spread to narrow. But longer term, the ability to use heavy sour crude is an issue that's
expected to confront the refining industry because of the vast reserves of the
oil. OPEC, whose members already have large amounts of sour crude to sell, think
the time is now to upgrade more facilities worldwide -- and even in the United
States -- to add more flexibilityin handling different types of crude.
Source: Kansas City StarUS refiners get rid of sour oil
In fact, more than three-fourths of US refinery capacity can process heavy sour,
which typically sells for a few dollars less than light sweet crude because it
is not as easily refined. And this year, as Persian Gulf producers have flooded
the market with additional supplies of the heavier sour crude, the sweet and
sour price gap has grown even wider, reaching $ 17 to $ 18 the last week of
October.
"This has resulted in excellent refining margins," said Curtis Hyatt,
an associate director for the Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy
consulting firm. But it's unclear how much, if any, of the savings from the
cheaper crude oil have benefited US consumers.
Beyond improved refinery profits, the discounts are highlighting the growing
role of heavy sour in meeting demand for petroleum products. Light sweet crude
such as West Texas Intermediate is needed by a majority of the world's
refineries. But the sweet crude is estimated to constitute only 30 % of the
world's reserves. The heavier sour crude oil accounts for the balance.
Such a scramble occurred this year when OPEC took most of its surplus oil
production out of mothballs to try to moderate rising oil prices and meet rising
demand. Most of the added oil was medium and heavy sour, which did not help
greatly in some regions. In Asia, for example, where China's growth is driving
demand, OPEC estimates that only 30 % of refineries can process heavy sour oil.
But the gap is farmore than is historically normal -- it was about $ 4 a year
ago -- and OPEC has clearly been irked by accounts of record prices for Texas
sweet crude while its members have gotten far less for their sour crude.
Light sweet crude has its advantages. Light oil, compared with medium and heavy,
is more easily refined into a high percentage of high-value products such as
gasoline. And "sweet" oil contains less sulphur than sour does, and
sulphur must be removed to meet environmental regulations. As a result, heavy
sour costs more to refine, meaning its producers must offer it at a discount off
the price of light sweet crude.
"We're probably in a better position than most to handle these heavy
oils," said Joanne Shore, an analyst for the Energy Information
Administration. In addition, California refineries have been upgraded to handle
heavy sour crude, and most of those in the upper Midwest are also thought to be
capable of handling heavy sour crude.
So given that tilt toward lower grades, is it misleading to use the widely
reported price of West Texas Intermediate, a US benchmark for light sweet crude?
Analysts say no, in part because oil is a worldwide market and sweet crude is a
crucial part of it. In addition, sweet crude is needed by many US refiners.
Premcor, another US refining company, reported third-quarter earnings of $ 145
mm, dwarfing the $ 60 mm it made in the same quarter a year ago. Premcor singled
out the use of sour crude for its contribution to those profits.
"Margins have been enhanced by what appears to be a longer-term widening of
the differential between light low-sulphur crude oil and heavy high-sulphur
crude oil," Thomas O'Malley, the company's CEO, said.
"If that happens, the shift would not be permanent," he said.
The US refinery system could use the additional flexibility, according to OPEC.
Though much of the industry can refine sour crude, refiners have no excess
capacity to adapt to growing demand and the United States is importing about 10
% of the gasoline it needs. It is further pressed by the need to produce several
"boutique" gasoline blends to meet environmental regulations in
different parts of the country.
As S.A. Kermati, a petroleum products market analyst for OPEC, summed it up:
"The situation is very fragile, especially for a market which is leading
the rest of the markets."