The Russian government is using its prosecution of the Yukos oil giant on
tax-evasion charges as a pretext to reassert state control over Russia's oil
sector, which rivals Saudi Arabia in output, analysts say. Coming at a time when the world is thirsty for oil and shortages loom unless
resources are developed aggressively, Russia's move to reassert influence over
oil assets privatized during the 1990s is contributing to high oil prices and
worldwide anxiety about the future of oil supplies. OAO Yukos Oil Co., under the chairmanship of billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky
during the late 1990s, was transformed from a bankrupt state-owned firm into
Russia's biggest, most Westernized and ambitious energy company, boasting
ownership of one of the largest oil-producing units in Russia, Yuganskneftegaz,
located in oil-rich western Siberia. But after a debilitating year during which the government has ratcheted up
past-due tax claims to unprecedented and crippling levels exceeding $24 billion,
Yukos' stock has lost most of its value. And in a final blow, to satisfy the tax liens, today the government is
scheduled to auction off a controlling interest in Yuganskneftegaz, Yukos' crown
jewel, accounting for 60 percent of its oil production. The government intends to go ahead with its plans, despite a ruling by a U.S.
District Court judge last night upholding a bankruptcy court order temporarily
blocking the auction. Moscow has said U.S. courts have no jurisdiction in
Russia. While bids may come from as far away as India and China, the government
already has indicated that the designated buyer will be OAO Gazprom, a
state-controlled natural-gas monopoly that recently ventured into the oil
business. Michael Goldberg, a Houston lawyer representing Gazprom, planned to consult
with clients in Moscow about a possible appeal. "There is no jurisdiction in this case, and this is not the type of case
that a Texas court should be deciding about Russian assets," he said. Gazprom had planned to take out $13 billion in loans to finance the Yukos
acquisition and was expected to win with a bid just exceeding the $8.6 billion
opening price set by the government - which analysts say is one-third to
one-half of Yuganskneftegaz's market value. Yukos executives have protested the sale as an illegal confiscation of
private property after trumped-up charges. But they hold out little hope of
persuading Russian courts, which have sided uniformly with the government, to
stop the sale. "This isn't about taxes. This is about takeover" of the oil
business, an attorney for Yukos said. "This kind of conduct raises major
questions about the rule of law. It raises questions for investors in the oil
sector, or any sector of strategic importance in Russia." Putting Russia first The huge Yuganskneftegaz acquisition would make Gazprom by some measures the
world's largest energy company and possibly give Russian authorities a voice
equal to Saudi Arabia and other top producers in influencing world oil and gas
prices. But perhaps more importantly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, analysts
say, the breakup of Yukos enables the government to regain control over Russia's
most lucrative natural asset, its vast oil reserves. Mr. Putin has never publicly acknowledged this as his goal, insisting that he
is trying to make people pay their taxes. But officials close to the government
say there is no doubt he is reclaiming the family jewels. And Mr. Putin has
alluded to his nationalistic aims in offhand remarks. "The fuel and energy sector, overall, is the goose that lays the golden
egg," he said a year ago. "We have to be driven by our own national interests," Mr. Putin
said in the fall on a visit to China, explaining why he favors a new pipeline
through Siberia that not only delivers oil to China or Japan, but also
contributes to the economic development of Russia's impoverished eastern
provinces. The pipeline venture is one area where Mr. Khodorkovsky, a Putin political
opponent who has been in jail for more than a year awaiting trial on fraud and
tax-evasion charges, ran afoul of the powerful world leader. Before his arrest the Yukos mogul had been close to a deal to build a
pipeline to China, the world's fastest-growing oil- consuming country. But Mr. Putin prefers to build a pipeline nearly four times longer to the
east coast port of Nakhodka that could feed shipments of oil to Japan and the
United States as well as the rest of Asia. That pipeline would guarantee higher
prices for Russia's oil by ensuring that China has competitors with access to
the oil. Also to Mr. Putin's liking, Japan has offered to pay for much of the Nakhodka
pipeline, which likely would be owned and operated by the state pipeline company
Transneft. Japan has offered to provide another $5 billion for the development
of Russia's far east. Taken together with the partial government takeover of Yukos, the pipeline
deal would go a long way toward putting the destiny of Russia's most significant
economic resource back in the Kremlin's hands, analysts said. State capitalism in Russia "Control of the pipelines is the key for the government," said
Stanislov Song, a Russian investment specialist with J.P. Morgan investment bank
- as is the state's move to retain or regain control over Russia's most
important energy companies. While some Putin critics charge that he is "renationalizing" energy
assets, following a pattern of other major oil-producing countries that maintain
national control over their energy sectors, Mr. Song believes Mr. Putin's goals
are somewhat more modest. The state's actions in the Yukos case, its blessing of a joint venture
between Russia's Lukoil and ConocoPhillips this summer, and other
government-backed alliances with Western companies suggest that the goal is
merely to retain a majority stake and prevent outside ownership of more than 49
percent of critical resources, he said. Some analysts suggest Mr. Putin is moving toward "state capitalism"
in light of the widespread belief that Russia's experiment with an unfettered
market economy during the 1990s failed to produce widespread benefits. Mr. Putin's actions indicate that he not only wants to derive the most
potential revenue and economic advantage from exports of Russian oil, he also
wants to conserve Russia's rich oil resources as much as possible to fuel the
country's own development, Mr. Song said. Mr. Putin has set the ambitious goal of doubling Russia's economic output by
2010 - a move that would catapult Russia into the realm of the world's top 10
economic powers. But Mr. Putin would like to attain that status by developing Russia's
promising space and technology sectors, and upgrading its aging industrial
sectors, rather than depleting its vast energy and natural resources as
Westerners have advised. "He's trying to restrict exports" of oil and "make sure
domestic prices remain within bounds," Mr. Song said. Tax compliance up Besides wresting control of key parts of the oil sector, the government's
case against Yukos is serving its avowed purpose of increasing compliance with
the tax laws, Mr. Song said. Mr. Putin insists regularly that he is not pursuing Yukos for political
reasons or to silence his well-heeled opponent, Mr. Khodorkovsky, but rather is
making an example of Russia's biggest taxpayer by throwing the book at it for
tax evasion. Since the crackdown on Yukos, "we see a trend of increasing tax
contributions to the state," Mr. Song said. "Companies have been more
compliant with the letter and spirit of the tax law and are contributing more to
local communities." Pavel M. Teplukhin, president of Troika Dailog, a Moscow investment bank,
also has observed an increase in tax compliance, which was notoriously low
throughout Russia before the Yukos affair. While many in the West are startled and disturbed by Mr. Putin's move to
punish Mr. Khodorkovsky and take control of Yukos, Mr. Teplukhin said the
Russian public is sympathetic because many people feel they were cheated by the
Russian billionaires who benefited the most from privatization. Only 15 years ago, nearly everything in Russia was owned and controlled by
the state, he notes. Opinion polls today show that 40 percent of the public
believes private property should be turned back to the state. The polls show that Mr. Putin is well within his mandate in attempting to
reserve and cultivate Russia's oil resources primarily for the benefit of
ordinary Russians, Mr. Teplukhin said. If that means oil remains in short supply and prices stay high, so be it. The
United States should learn to conserve energy rather than ask Russia to build
massive pipelines across ecologically sensitive areas of Siberia to feed
America's unquenchable thirst for oil, he said. State needs oil revenue Mr. Putin has other important reasons to regain control over Yukos and
reshape it to fit his nationalistic agenda. Oil taxes and export duties are the main source of revenue for the Russian
government. The energy sector produces about half of Russia's economic output,
Mr. Teplukhin said, and most of its tax revenue. When oil prices are high, revenues pour in and the government prospers, as do
the many pensioners and workers who depend on the government for income. The Russian public has become acutely aware of the connection between oil
prices and pensions, particularly since Mr. Putin used recent oil-generated
surpluses to raise wages and pensions for retirees and health care, education
and other workers. As a result, the connection between oil prices and the public welfare has
become a political factor. At a recent public forum, a pensioner asked Mr. Putin
if her pension payments would drop if oil prices fell. Natalia Gevorkyan, special correspondent for the Kommersant business
newspaper, said the Yukos affair shows that Mr. Putin is trying to take over
parts of the economy just as he is consolidating power over the Russian
parliament and regions. But the president's political fortunes may depend on oil prices remaining
high, she said. "What will follow a collapse in oil prices is a collapse of the economy
and a collapse of the government in power."
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