World energy use grows by 2

LONDON, England, 2004-06-30 (Refocus Weekly)

One of the oldest statistical reviews of global energy does not include data on renewables because of “problems with the completeness, timeliness and quality of the data.”

The 53rd edition of the annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy does not include data on renewables except for large-scale hydro, although the report does provide data on installed capacity from some sources to illustrate some key trends in renewables. The document says 2003 was a year of “exceptional strength” in energy markets, with primary energy consumption increasing in all regions of the world, although hydroelectric generation rose only 0.4% with increases in Latin American and Asia Pacific offset by declines in Europe and North America, and nuclear generation suffering the second contraction in its history, led by a 27% decline in Japan.

“Some forms of commercial, renewable energy are well established and relatively mature,” such as geothermal which now contributes 8 GW of electricity, including one-quarter of power in the Philippines. A drop in U.S. capacity was more than offset by significant gains in the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia, and the capacity of geothermal in earth energy heat pumps (GeoExchange) is estimated to be double the level of generation.

Wind and solar energy are “relatively immature and fast growing” due to “a combination of technology advances and supportive government policy, which create a virtuous circle of expanding markets and falling unit costs,” it explains. Installed wind capacity has increased ten-fold over the last decade, with increases in the last five years exceeding nuclear and “signalling wind’s emergence as a mainstream energy source.”

Of the 40 GW installed around the world, the largest concentrations are in Germany (14.6 GW), Spain (6.4 GW) the U.S. (6.4 GW), and Denmark (3.1 GW).

Installed capacity of solar PV has increased ten-fold over the last decade “albeit from a very low base,” with concentration in a relatively small number of countries. Although capital costs of solar PV remain high relative to conventional generation technologies, “costs should continue to fall in response to technological breakthroughs and the scaling up of manufacture,” and average production costs have dropped in half in each of the last two decades. In favourable locations such as California, building-integrated solar PV is “close to being economic in its own right” and 90% of global PV capacity in 2002 was grid-connected.

BP sells 71 MW a year of solar panels.
The report estimates total world oil reserves at 1.15 trillion barrels, 10% higher than 2002, noting that global oil reserves have increased “almost continuously” over the past 30 years with global reserves at 41 years of current production rates. Natural gas reserves are 176 trillion cubic metres, 13% higher than report for 2002 due to consistent increases, with gas reserves doubling since 1980 due to exploration and new technology.

“Despite those who say we are about to run out of oil and gas, the figures in the review confirm there is no shortage of reserves,” says BP chief economist Peter Davies. “Production in some provinces may have peaked, but this is no reason for current high prices.”

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