First however to the title: "Out of Gas" in his terminology means out of gasoline not natural gas. A better title might have been "Out of Hydrocarbons" since the book is dedicated to the overall concerns that fossil fuels are rapidly depleting. Working from Shell's geophysicist King Hubbert's theory that US oil production peaked in the 1970's, Goodstein cites various oil geologists who have expanded Hubbert's bell curve theory to cover world wide supplies of oil and predict that the WWpeak will occur this decade. Once the peak is reached (50% of reserves) according to the theory, there is no turning back and the decline is forever.

He further contends that real crisis comes when we reach the production peak, not when we produce the last drop. World wide panic, inflation, and even World (Oil) War III are examples of the worst case scenarios of events to occur when the peak is realized. Dr. Goodstein contends that other fuel sourcing can eventually take the place of oil and maintain our “oil standard of living” but the infrastructure to provide the fit will take many years to provide.

There is a lot written in the book about the perils of the “oil peak” but at the end of the Introduction, Dr. Goodstein tells the reader that a great deal of science underlies all of this theory, hence he has really written the book to “explain the relevant laws of nature”. And that he does with a great amount of clarity.

I’ve worked in the energy industry for the past 25 years developing projects on the upstream, midstream and downstream ends of the business. I thought I knew a lot about the physical nature of energy for a non-technical person until I read this book. In Dr. Goodstein’s attempt to educate us to the “perils” he has managed to explain a great deal about the physics of energy, electricity, radiant energy, heat engines (the best section – especially for those of you in the upstream gas business who need to understand the relationship between natural gas and power) and entropy – much to my non-technical mind’s benefit.

Most enlightening is the chapter on entropy. Entropy which is the “effect” in the phase “cause and effect” is the worrisome factor in Dr. Goodstein’s evaluation of the world wide crisis. As energy is turned into work (heat) its equal offset becomes what is called entropy. (cooled energy which renders the energy useless to work). Remember, energy can change from one form to another but it can never be created or destroyed. So as we fill the entropy column on our worksheet we find the universe without heat, without work energy. It’s like having all the air sucked out of the room and we eventually suffer the final big bang.

Dr. Goodstein spends time explaining this physical law in order to drive the point home that we must get serious about hydrocarbon production and consumption. Here’s what I think is the point: Until just recently we in the energy business have called our industry the Oil and Gas Business. We even expanded the descriptive title to include the Power Industry. Newer yet is the name “Energy Industry”.

Whether you believe Goodstein’s hypothesis regarding world wide oil reserves or not, this book gives you enough scientific information to establish the fact that our business is truly about energy and we, whether we are oil and gas producers, transporters, refiners and consumers, are all part of the same trade, and consequently share the same concerns about the future.

If our business is energy then we should work in tandem to create new sourcing for energy – just in case we run out. Instead, a lot of us argue (with folks like Dr. Goodstein) and ourselves about exactly how much oil and gas is left in the ground. The majors have essentially moved their focus overseas looking for the best way to bring in the shareholder value. Have you noticed that a number of companies are reversing overstated reserves recently? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of this in the coming year as drilling increases to provide for our supply-demand crisis.

New technology has given us an added shot at expanding our fuel base. New LNG technology and higher natural gas prices have made international natural gas availability a reality. New drilling and extraction techniques have created opportunity to extract oil from tar and from coal seams. Better yet, enterprising energy companies are engaging in alternative sourcing like solar, wind, hydrogen and nuclear fuel in addition to its traditional hydrocarbon based business. That’s right, growing energy companies with the world’s future in mind, and I might add, its company’s bottom line in mind. That’s Dr. Goodstein’s real message - “prepare now” . . . And I think he’s right on target.