Getting
worthless gas to
Henry Hub's $5.15 buyers
Picture a world
with vast quantities of gas in the ground that has negative value.
It's worth less than nothing if you have to spend
money to pump it back into the reservoir as the oil comes out.
Meanwhile Kiplinger predicts today's $5.15/mmbtu
will be the low for the year.
Getting the locked-in, valueless gas to the US
where it's worth $5.15 provides the excitement of the LNG market and
infrastructure need.
LNG imports -- about 1% of US demand -- have
already begun to rise, panelists noted on a Restructuring Today
conference call: Will LNG meet skyrocketing expectations?
A lot more needs to be done here and overseas to
meet growing gas needs.
Darcel Hulse, Sempra Energy LNG CEO sees a North
America hooked on gas.
Consider the barriers to adding hydro, nuclear and
coal generation, Hulse cited LNG as "the only plausible solution."
He means maybe seven years and $60 billion to
develop infrastructure here and overseas to meet demand.
"We can't wait for all the questions to be
answered," Hulse emphasized. "Market signals are there. We need to
fill the gap."
Sempra facilities -- often described here -- on
the US Gulf coast and in Baja California are to function in 2007.
Keith Meyer, president, Cheniere LNG stressed the
damage to the gas industry if LNG doesn't kick into service citing the enormous
demand destruction in earlier gas industry downturns.
Cheniere is planning three LNG import facilities
on the Gulf Coast, where demand is high (Texas and Louisiana use more gas than
does Japan).
Pipelines from the Gulf Coast can move gas all
over America.
Meyer predicted a trend back to long-term gas
contracts, a trend that ended in the 1980s when producers realized how badly
they'd suffered from them.
Long-term supply -- and PUC approval of those
accords -- is mandatory to get LNG facility financing, Meyers added.
A banner year, 2003 has been the most successful
year on record for the LNG industry and greater growth is on the horizon,
predicted Pat Pope, vice president and associate general counsel of El Paso
Energy Services.
He reported more than 40 greenfield projects
(starting from scratch) proposals have been announced and will compete with each
other for final action.
Pope favors expanding existing facilities (brownfield)
over startups for cost reasons, noting El Paso's expanding its Elba Island, Ga,
LNG facility.
ICF Vice President Leonard Crook agreed the US has
turned the corner on LNG and forecast rising gas prices are likely to bring
exploration gains in the Gulf of Mexico and the Rockies and foster building of
coal-fired plants.
Colleen Taylor Sen, senior LNG adviser, Gas
Technology Institute, agreed that long-term contracts are a must.
Don't forget, she counseled, that the US faces
competition from other markets for LNG supplies.
LNG imports doubled last year, she added, and may account for 15% of US supplies
by the 2020s.
A CD of the hour and a half panel and transcript
including Q&A from those on the call is available for only $150 by calling
1-800-486-8201 or visiting http://www.restructuringtoday.com/audio/lng.htm
(Story originally published in Restructuring Today 3/11/04)