26-05-04

As gasoline prices have soared this spring with many motorists now paying more than $ 2 a gallon, it will be interesting to see if this becomes a political issue in this election year.
A new Harris Poll brings good news for the White House: only 23 % of the public thinks that the US government is mainly to blame for high gas prices. Most people blame either OPEC (37 %) or foreign oil producers (35 %) rather than the government.

These are some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,141 adults who own or lease a vehicle who were surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between May 10 and 17, 2004. The survey also finds that drivers believe they are spending, on average, more than $ 90 a month more on gasoline that they were spending a year ago.

However, this average is pulled up by a small proportion of drivers who spend a lot on gas. Half of all drivers report increased monthly spending on gas of about $ 40 or less.

Other results of this Harris Interactive survey include:
-- 40 % of drivers say they have cut back on other expenditures to pay more for gasoline. The expenditures reduced most often are eating out, driving in general, shopping, weekend trips, recreation and movies.
-- Most people believe that higher gasoline prices will refocus attention on more fuel-efficient vehicles with higher miles per gallon (81 %) and will increase consumer interest in high-mileage, hybrid gas-election vehicles (76 %).
-- The public is somewhat evenly divided (46 % to 54 %) as to whether or not higher gas prices will significantly reduce vehicle purchases.
-- 60 % of adults who plan to buy a new vehicle in the next two years believe that they will buy a more efficient car or truck.

However, these public perceptions and expectations should not be used as firm predictions. Historically, there has often been a very big difference between what the public expects to do in the future and what it actually does. And any changes, up or down, in gasoline prices in the future will also alter behaviour.

This survey also finds a widespread perception believed by 71 % of the public that US automobile manufacturers are not moving as quickly as they should to build high MPG vehicles.

Table 1
How much more spending on gas in last month (compared to last year)
"In the last month, how much more, in dollars, do you think you spent on gasoline than you did last year at this time?"

Base: Adults own or lease a vehicle

Total in %
$ 0 - $ 25 36
$ 26 - $ 50 35
$ 51 - $ 100 18
Over $ 100 10
Mean (average) $ 93.8
Median $ 39.5

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding.

Table 2
Whether cut back on other purchases to pay for increased price of gasoline
"Have you cut back on any products or services in order to pay the increased price of gasoline?"

Base: Adults who own or lease a vehicle

Total in %
Yes 40
No 60

Table 3
What expenditures have been reduced to pay more for gasoline
"What products or services have you cut back on?"

Base: Adults who cut back on products or services to pay for gas

Total in %
Dining out 65
Driving in general (local trips, errands, joined a carpool, etc.) 56
Shopping for fun 53
Weekend trips 49
Recreation 43
Movies 42
Vacations 41
Clothing 36
Gasoline/gasoline quality 36
Just about everything 35
Visiting with family/friends 33
Videos/music 30
Non-essential services (haircuts, tanning, etc.) 30
Non-essential items (cosmetics, cigarettes, gifts, etc.) 29
Charitable contributions 28
Holiday trips 28
Buy generic/store brand 28
Food 27
Books/magazines 26
Home repair and improvements 21
Purchasing a new car or truck 20
Automobile maintenance and repair 20
Air conditioning (home or car) 18
Children's toys/activities 15
Cell phone/telephone 15
Cable TV/Cable Internet 13
Lawn and garden care 13
Health care 12
Other utilities (natural gas, electricity, water) 12
Insurance (home or car) 6
Buying or selling a house 5

Note: This is a multiple response question, so percentages will not add up to 100%.

Table 4
Some expected effects of gas price increase
"Do you think the gasoline price increase will...?"

Base: All adults

Will Will not
Refocus consumer attention on purchasing vehicles that allow them to travel more miles per gallon of gas % 81 19
Increase consumer interest in high-mileage, hybrid, gas- electric vehicle % 76 24
Result in significantly fewer vehicle purchases in the US over the next year % 46 54

Table 5
Impact of gas prices on next vehicle purchase
"Do you think you will buy a vehicle of the same size and fuel consumption as you now own, or will you buy a more fuel-efficient car or truck?"

Base: Adults who own, lease and plan to buy a new vehicle in next 2 years

Total in %
Same as I now own 40
More fuel efficient 60

Table 6
Whether auto companies are moving fast enough to build cars that use less gas
"Do you think that American automobile companies are moving as quickly as they should to build automobiles that consume less gasoline?"

Base: All adults

Total in %
Yes, moving as quickly as should 11
Not moving as quickly 71
Not sure/Refused 18

Table 7
Who is mainly to blame for increase in fuel prices?
"Who do you think is mainly to blame for the increase in fuel prices?

Base: All adults

Total in %
OPEC and other foreign oil producers 37
Oil companies 35
US government 23
Automotive manufacturers 1
Others 4

Methodology

The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between May 10 and 17, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 2,408 adults (aged 18 and over) of whom 2,141 say that they own or lease a vehicle. Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 % certainty that the results have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting.

It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

About Harris Interactive(R)
Harris Interactive is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research.

The company conducts international research from its US offices and through wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com), Paris-based Novatris and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan -- as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of independent market- and opinion-research firms.

Source: MSN Money