US retail power market expected to grow, but slowly: KEMA

Washington (Platts)--19Oct2004

US competitive retail power market growth only will inch above levels posted
in 2003, but show much stronger growth in 2005, 2006 and beyond. The market
was about 300-mil MWh at the end of 2003, but will grow to about 475-mil MWh
by year-end 2009, said Taff Tschamler, director of the retail energy markets
advisory service for KEMA Inc. The 8% annual growth of the market through 2009
compares with growth of over 100% from 2001 to 2002 and 16% from 2002 to 2003,
Tschamler said. "The market is going to be a real mix, with less activity in
some states and more activity in other states," he said. Texas will remain the
largest and most competitive market, he said, followed by what Tschamler
characterized as "second-tier" markets--Illinois, New York and Ohio.
California also is a significant market, although new customer-choice options
currently are suspended, he said. KEMA does not anticipate major new market
openings in the near term, but does anticipate the opening on non-ERCOT
markets in south Texas.

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