OPEC, oil industry cannot control course of oil prices: CGES

London (Platts)--20Sep2004

The course of oil prices over the coming months is largely out of the hands of
both OPEC and the international oil industry, London-based think-tank the
Centre for Global Energy Studies said Monday. 

The CGES said new production capacity would be coming on, both within and
outside OPEC, and that commercial oil inventories were building ahead of the
winter. But oil demand was growing too and while stocks were rising, global
stock cover remained ten days lower than in 2001, it said. "Without a sudden
slowdown in oil demand growth this winter, the market looks set to remain
tight and prices high," the CGES said. But the Centre said this summer's high
prices had yet to make a discernible impact on oil demand growth and warned
that prices might need to rise further still over the winter to restrict
incremental demand sufficiently to balance the market. "What can make prices
fall again?" the CGES asked. "The answer is simple, either more supply or less
demand, or some combination of the two."

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