EU presents future vision for Solar PV
BRUSSELS, Belgium, 2004-09-08 (Refocus Weekly)
The European Union has finished a public consultation session on the future of solar PV on the continent.
The Photovoltaic Technology Research Advisory Council (PV-TRAC) was launched
in December 2003, by the European Commission to “contribute to a rapid
development of a world-class, cost–competitive European PV for sustainable
electricity production.” The members include major European PV stakeholders,
including the industry, construction sector, utilities and government agencies,
and it released a vision report to discuss PV technology beyond 2030.
The report is intended to ensure that future policy direction is co-ordinated at
national and European levels to enable PV to reach its full potential in the
future energy mix, and it outlines the potential for PV and identifies major
barriers hindering the uptake of solar technology and proposes a strategy to
overcome those barriers “to ensure a breakthrough of PV and an increase in
deployment in the Union and worldwide.”
The deadline for comments was September 2, and the document will be discussed at
a conference later this month.
“Availability to all citizens of clean, safe and affordable energy in
sufficient quantities is a prerequisite for a sustainable society,” it
explains. “To ensure the security and sustainability of future energy supply
in Europe, we need diversified and renewable energy sources.”
“The increasing share of renewable energy is a necessary ingredient of GHG
mitigation policies,” and solar PV has a technical potential of generating
440,000 Twh a year, or four times the earth’s total energy consumption. “In
Europe, fitting the total surface of south-oriented roofs with PV equipment
would enable full coverage of our electricity needs.”
“Although reliable PV technology is already available today, it needs further
development; especially to reduce the cost of electricity produced,” the
report notes. “Even assuming high market growth figures, it will take a
substantial time before PV becomes a major global source of energy in absolute
terms,” not because of a lack of vitality of PV but due to time lags in
changing patterns of energy supply.
“The coming decade is considered decisive in terms of which countries or
global regions will dominate the future PV sector,” it notes. “In view of
its excellent (technology and market) starting position, the EU has a unique
opportunity to build a large and highly innovative economic sector, while at the
same time developing a key building block for a sustainable energy supply,”
but that goal requires “an ambitious and coherent policy on research and
development, market incentives and communication, and the removal of
barriers.”
The EC has set a target of 12% from renewable energy by 2010, up from 6% in
1996, with the share of green power rising to 22% from 14%, but it does not
provide a specific framework for the promotion of photovoltaics. Some countries
have developed technology-specific feed-in tariffs to encourage uptake of PV
technology, such as the German ‘Renewable Energy Sources Act’ that sets a
target of 1 GW by 2010 which has resulted in a 10-fold market increase in four
years and a price reduction of 20%.
“The main driving forces that require a dramatic change in our energy
consumption patterns include the depletion of oil and gas resources, climate
change considerations, the lack of access to commercial energy of one-third of
world’s population and the expected economic growth of Asian countries,” it
says. “The transition to a sustainable global energy system is one of the
biggest challenges mankind has ever faced.”
“Impressive progress in PV technology has been made over the past decades”
and has reduced prices by a factor five over the past 20 years, and period to
2030 will show “rapid further maturing” of commercial technologies with flat
plate module efficiencies of up to 25% (35% for concentrators) and generation
costs down to 0.05-0.12 Euro/kWh.
Crystalline silicon, thin film and new PV concepts will be equally present on
the market that is expected to be 110 GW, with annual operation and maintenance
at less than 1% of investment costs. PV modules and systems will be based on
“abundant and non-toxic materials, or fully closed cycles and the energy
pay-back time of systems will be less than one year” and, after 2030, module
efficiencies will increase further as a result of successful implementation of
‘third generation’ concepts.
“Ultimately, PV module will have an energy conversion performance in the
30-50% range,” with 1 m2 of high efficiency modules in sunny regions yielding
1,000 kWh of electricity per year, it predicts. Traditional energy sources will
still be the majority provider of energy in 2030, but the use of renewables will
be increasing and PV will be the preferred option to supply power at sun-induced
peak periods due to its competitive cost.
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