Future of Energy Conservation Looks Promising
Sep 25 - Bulletin. Northwest Public Power Association
Energy conservation has a promising regional future, brightened by technology advances and forecasted higher power prices, according to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council.
The Council's upcoming regional action plan is likely to include a central
focus on sustained energy-saving efforts, even with the current power surplus
Council officials anticipate could last beyond 2010.
Although this action plan for 2005-20IO is still under development as part of
the overall regional plan, Council staffers have tentatively identified about
150 average megawatts of consistent annual regional acquisitions.
The Council estimates an annual total resource cost of $380 million for this
level of conservation - nearly triple the average annual regional conservation
spending from 1997 through 2002, and exceeded in recent history only m 1993 and
1994.
Council Power Division Director Dick Watson acknowledged difficulties
translating Council goals into results, especially with conservation's rate
impacts on utilities and BPA.
"It's always been a tugging and a hauling to get it done," he said.
"I'm sure it'll be that way again. I also think the benefits justify
it."
The aggregate Northwest conservation potential foreseen by the Council is
similar to the region's historic accomplishments of about 3,000 average
megawatts of energy savings from 1980 through 2002, from utility and Bonneville
Power Administration programs, energy codes and federal efficiency standards.
It's also nearly double the approximately 1,500 average megawatts of
cost-effective regional energy savings outlined in the last regional plan.
Two major factors have boosted regional conservation potential, compared to
that 1998 plan.
One is improved technology. High-performance T-8 fluorescent lighting,
compact fluorescent lamps and optimized controls are three examples cited by
Council Conservation Resources Manager Tom Eckman.
Another significant bump comes from Council projections for higher power
market prices. The Council's last plan forecast market prices through 2015 in a
tight band between two cents per kilowatt hour and four cents per kilowatt hour.
In this draft plan, the low- end forecast covers a similar range, but summertime
price spikes are envisioned to J O cents per kilowatt hour and slightly beyond
in the corning decade - fueled by California and desert Southwest loads, Eckman
said.
Residential-sector potential heads the parade of energy-saving possibilities,
at 1,2.35 average megawatts, highlighted by 530 average megawatts of lighting.
Commercial energy savings are estimated at l,145 average megawatts, in building
and non-building applications. Industrial efficiencies are projected at an
admittedly uncertain 350 average megawatts, with irrigated agriculture at 80
average megawatts.
If the region steadily acquires this conservation, power system costs would
shrink $500 million (net present value). The risk reduction value is an
estimated $1.5 billion, according to the Council.
Consistent pursuit of conservation - even during times of low power prices
and thus lower cost-effectiveness thresholds - is ultimately less expensive than
the proverbial roller coaster, according to Council Senior Power Systems Analyst
Michael Schilmoeller.
In another forum of region wide significance, BPA proposes a continuing - but
potentially different and in some ways diminished - role for itself in regional
energy conservation and renewable energy development after fiscal year 2006.
These broad concepts are contained in BPA's "Policy Proposal for Power
Supply Role for Fiscal Years 2007-2011," released July 7 as part of the
agency's Regional Dialogue process on its post-2006 future.
Many details on specific approaches remain uncertain, including the fate of
BPA's current primary energy-saving initiatives, Conservation Augmentation and
the Conservation and Renewables Discount Program.
"We've got some fairly high-level principles that are critical going
forward," said BPA Energy Efficiency Vice President Mike Weedall.
First, BPA wants to use the Council's plan to set energy-saving goals. BPA
will "continue to be responsible for our share of the region's
conservation, and we want to work with others to make sure their shares of
conservation also get acquired," said Weedall.
The second principle is localism. Although some region wide strategies are
viable - such as market transformation - "the bulk of the conservation to
be achieved is best pursued and achieved at the local level," the proposal
said.
Third, cost considerations are key: "BPA will seek to meet its
conservation goals at the lowest possible cost and lowest possible rate
impacts."
BPA also plans to financially support local utility planning and
implementation of conservation programs, "with the appropriate level of
funding open for discussion."
Finally, Bonneville wants to continue funding education, outreach and
low-income weatherization programs, which the proposal describes as successful
complements to the conservation portfolio.
BPA - which now buys the output from 198 megawatts of renewable resource
capacity, almost entirely wind power - proposes a fundamental shift in its
approach to renewables, calling for "an active and creative facilitation
role ... This signals a move away from large-scale renewables acquisition toward
a greater focus on finding ways to reduce the barriers and costs interested
customers face in developing and acquiring renewables," such as providing
integration services and improving transmission.
Bonneville proposes to continue its net annual spending on renewables of up
to $15 million, plus $6 million yearly through C&RD, though the agency
hasn't decided whether the discount program is the right vehicle.
BPA is seeking public comment on its proposal through September 22; six
public meetings also are being held around the region. Administrator Steve
Wright plans to sign a final record of decision on these policies by December.
BPA is seeking public comment on its proposal through September 22; six
public meetings also are being held around the region. Administrator Steve
Wright plans to sign a final record of decision on these policies by December.
Mark Ohrenschall is editor of Con. WEB, a Pacific Northwest energy
conservation and renewable energy newsletter available on the Web at www.newsdata.com/enernet/conweb
. He can be reached by e-mail at marko@newsata.com
.
Copyright Northwest Public Power Association Sep 2004