Japan's Meti projects slow demand growth

Japan's Meti projects slow demand growth

Tokyo (Platts Power in Asia)--19Mar2004

National energy demand is projected to grow very slowly in the longer term as a result of the projected population decline, improved energy efficiency and continued sluggishness in economic growth, according to projections issued by the ministry of economy, trade and industry (Meti). Power demand will increase at a faster rate, but at a level that is still well below that experienced in the past. Meti forecast that overall energy demand will increase at an average annual rate of only 0.2% between 2000 and 2030, compared with the 1.9% average annual increase between 1970 and 2000. The ministry added that national energy consumption was projected to peak at the equivalent of 436m kiloliters of crude oil in 2022. Meti also forecast that the annual rate of growth in electricity demand would average only 0.8% between 2000 and 2030. This compared with the 3.8% a year average increase posted between 1970 and 2000. The projections are based on the central assumption that the country's gross domestic product will grow at an average annual rate of 1.5% from 2000 to 2030, and are also predicated on the population in 2030 having fallen to the same level as in 1980. Meti added that if economic growth outpaced the 1.5% annual average, primary energy demand would peak somewhat later, in 2028.

This story was published in Platts Power in Asia