FEVERISH debate in New York and Amsterdam at the weekend has done nothing to
calm oil markets around the world. In New York, G8 finance ministers fretted over the damage today's high oil
price, if sustained, could inflict on the global economy. Ministers urged
producer countries to puncture the price bubble by increasing supplies. In Amsterdam Opec members agreed to disagree about their response, at least
until their next full meeting in Beirut on June 3. The largest producer by far in the 11-country cartel, Saudi Arabia, is
determined to raise its own output unilaterally. The rest are refusing to dance
to Riyadh's tune. Amidst such conflicting signals, the price of bechmark crude in New York
yesterday was once more testing 21-year record highs. It is hard to see where
any serious downward pressure on the oil price is going to come from. Indeed
there are growing worries that the price could go higher still in the months
ahead. Some Opec members are openly disputing that this is, fundamentally, a supply
problem. They point to intense market speculation and mounting security concerns
in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East as plausible alternative explanations
for the price soaring. In any case, most Opec members are already pumping as much oil as their
current production capacity allows. Even the Saudis, with almost all the spare
capacity within Opec, are already thought to be producing well beyond existing
quotas. There is no guarantee that raising the cartel's quotas by up to 2.5
million barrels a day, as Riyadh is urging, will turn out to be anything more
than another cosmetic exercise. Some observers argue that - whatever the precise dynamics of this oil price
spike - producers and consumers will sort the problem out in the end. It may
take time. Quite a long time. We may end up with higher average prices than
we've been used to. Governments may have to tax fossil fuel less, in future, to
prevent permanent damage to their economies. But the problem will eventually be
fixed. However, that analysis tends to slide over two inconvenient consequences of
our dependency on the black stuff. Oil is a finite resource and we are
discovering fewer fresh reserves of the stuff than we used to. And burning oil
has had a deleterious impact on our environment, an impact that can only get
worse if major emerging economies like China realise their desire to burn even
more of it. Even if most Opec members don't see this as a supply problem, the fact that
demand for a finite resource is rising sharply in newly industrialising nations,
many of them in Asia, is inevitably going to put more and more pressure - real
and speculative - on the price. There are intermediate supply constraints that can be fixed - faster
exploitation of proven reserves and additional refining capacity, for instance.
But with Asia expected to double its electricity consumption by 2020 and Shell
yet again downgrading its estimates of proven reserves, it's not hard to find
the singals that point to deeper pressures. China, we are told, is planning to build as much additional
electricity-generating capacity in the next couple of years (most of it
fossil-fuelled) as the UK's entire power station network. An Indian power group is even talking about dismantling the redundant
oil-fired station at Inverkip and shipping it off for reassembly in
Gujarat.Inverkip was built on the back of the North Sea production boom, with a
view to further diversifying sources of electricity supply. But the oil price
shocks of the 1970s rendered it too expensive to operate. Only in 1984, during
the miners' strike, did Inverkip do a turn and help Margaret Thatcher see off
Arthur Scargill. However, in the fast-changing global energy environment, even redundant
Inverkip may have a significant market value. But if the world burns all the oil
it can get, what value do we ascribe to the environmental impact all that
accelerated burning of fossil fuel will have on our planet? The eminent environmentalist Professor James Lovelock has just shocked his
many admirers in the green movement by suggesting, in yesterday's Independent,
that the only answer to halt global warming is to invest heavily once more in
nuclear power. Lovelock, author of the Gaia hypothesis, has become so alarmed by the melting
of the Greenland ice sheet and the extreme heat experienced in parts of Europe
last August, that he has said the previously unsayable. There is "no
chance" that renewables can provide enough alternative energy sources or
produce them in time. "Civilisation is in imminent danger and has to use
nuclear - the one safe, available energy source - now or suffer the pain soon to
be inflicted by our outraged planet," he warns. This oil crunch may indeed be very different from those of the 1970s. But it
is no less important for that. It is begging some of the biggest questions of
all - like how we balance our material aspirations against the very survival of
Planet Earth.