Feb. 19--A winter that will be remembered for its ample snow in the lowlands still hasn't produced enough precipitation to bail the Northwest out of what is looking like a fifth straight year of below- average runoff.

Forecasts suggest there will be ample water to spin turbines at hydroelectric dams to meet power needs this year, especially with electric demands suppressed by a lagging economy. But more water would mean more surplus power for utilities to sell to the Southwest this summer to improve their financial conditions.

In other words, more water over time could mean lower electric rates.

If precipitation is normal this spring, the January through July runoff at The Dalles will reach 100 million acre-feet, about 93 percent of normal, according to figures presented to the Northwest Power and Conservation Council on Wednesday. The Northwest hasn't hit the average of 106 million acre-feet since 1999.

"We've forgotten what precipitation is really like," BPA Administrator Steve Wright told the Herald editorial board last week. Since January, "it's been downhill," he said.

There's still time for the outlook to get much better or much worse, depending on the weather. The National Weather Service's River Forecast Center indicates actual water levels could come in as low as 27 percent below average and as high as 16 percent above average.

"The early forecasts have a lot of uncertainty built into them," John Fazio, a power systems analyst for the council, said Wednesday. "That's quite a range."

By comparison, the drought of 2001 yielded water levels that were 45 percent below average.

In the long term, the region appears well equipped to meet energy needs in even below-average water years. The Northwest, which is consuming about 22,000 average megawatts, has about 1,000 megawatts to spare today and about zero chance of falling short at any point during the next several years, Fazio said.

That number will slowly erode until the region becomes deficit in 2012 unless new resources are added. That forecast also is subject to significant change.

"If we were to see a boom in the economy, we could see deficits as early as a year or two," Fazio said. "If the economy drops down, we could see higher surpluses."