23-12-03 US dependence on foreign oil producers will grow to 70 % of US petroleum demand by 2025, a larger increase than previously forecast, the federal Energy Information Administration said.
EIA's early release of its 2004 Annual Energy Outlook projects US dependence on oil imports will be 2 % greater over the forecast period than EIA's previous annual outlook.

US petroleum imports accounted for 54 % of US petroleum demand in 2002, up from 37 % in 1980 and 42 % in 1990, said EIA, which is the US Department of Energy's statistics and analysis branch.
"US dependence on imported oil has grown over the past decade, with declining oil production and growing demand," EIA said. "This trend is expected to continue."

Domestic crude oil production is projected to peak at 6.1 mm bpd in 2008 amid increased offshore production, particularly in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. But US oil output will decline beginning in 2009 to 4.6 mm bpd by 2025, EIA said.
Total domestic petroleum supply (including crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, refinery processing gains and other refinery inputs) also is seen peaking in 2008, at 9.7 mm bpd, and then dropping to 8.6 mm bpd by 2025. That decline would be greater without a projected increase of 590,000 bpd in production of natural gas plant liquids, which are seen rising consistently with projected growth in US natural gas production, EIA said.

US reliance on both the OPEC as well as non-OPEC producers is projected to be greater than previously forecast. OPEC oil output is seen reaching 54 mm bpd by 2025, nearly 80 % higher than its 2002 production, EIA said.
Non-OPEC oil output is expected to increase to 63.9 mm bpd by 2025, from 44.7 mm bpd in 2002. Among non-OPEC producers, the major sources of growth in oil output will be Russia, the Caspian Basin, non-OPEC Africa, and South and Central America, EIA said.

Russian oil output is expected to reach 10.9 mm bpd in 2025, or 43 % above 2002 levels. Caspian production is seen topping 6 mm bpd by 2025, compared with 1.7 mm bpd in 2002. South and Central American production is seen reaching 7.8 mm bpd in 2025, up from 4.3 mm bpd in 2002. A large share of that increase -- 900,000 bpd -- is expected to come from non-conventional crude production in Venezuela, EIA said.
The growing supplies are expected to keep the rise in "real-world" oil prices to an average rate of 0.6 % a year. But in nominal dollars, the average world oil price is seen rising from about $ 29 a barrel in 2010 to about $ 52 a barrel in 2025, EIA said.

US petroleum consumption is seen rising through 2025, but at a slower pace than previously forecast. That's because EIA sees higher fuel-economy standards for light trucks affecting growth in demand for transportation fuels.
"On the demand side, the increase in consumption that we're forecasting is largely driven by the increase in the transportation sector," said EIA energy information specialist Jonathan Cogan. "Although we see some higher efficiencies in this fleet, we also see more vehicles as the population grows."

New fuel-economy standards for light trucks, including sport utility vehicles, require that light trucks sold by a manufacturer have a minimum average fuel economy of 21 miles per gallon for model year 2005, 21.6 miles per gallon for model year 2006, and 22.2 miles per gallon for model years 2007 and beyond. The old standard was 20.7 miles per gallon.
EIA projects average fuel economy for all new light-duty vehicles will rise to 26.9 miles per gallon by 2025, up from its previous forecast of 26.1 miles per gallon by 2025. World oil demand also is seen increasing, but at a slower pace than forecast in the previous EIA annual outlook, to 118 mm bpd in 2025 from 78 mm bpd in 2002. The previous EIA forecast estimated world demand would rise to 123 mm bpd in 2025.

Source: Dow Jones