Nation Experiences First Heat Wave Already, Harbinger of Summer Intensity

Less than 24 hours after the conclusion of February, with little fan fare, several locations in the South-Central U.S. soared into the 90's for a day.  If this isolated event we had hi-lighted did not garner attention, substantial April heat recently impacting several southern States probably has.  Yesterday marked the 7th consecutive day that Dallas has reached at least 86°F, but more impressively, it should also mark the 2nd day in a row eclipsing 100°F.

From the Pacific to the Atlantic, from June - September, it will be difficult for any Summer Season to rival last year's cumulative widespread heat.  But as discussed in previous commentaries and ENSO Reports, there are a few regions that could easily outshine 2005, and we're witnessing the results already.  Ridging, subsidence, sunshine, and compressional warming will combine with worsening drought to skyrocket temperatures in the South this Summer Season, which has arguably already begun.  Heat is becoming a concern early-on, and correspondingly with our advisories, April-May 2006 will be significantly warmer for many parts of the Nation than anything experienced in 2005.

It's still Spring fundamentally, so cooler nights, periodic showers, and occasional cold fronts will bring some relief.  Unfortunately, that will do little to mitigate the record-setting pre-June Critical Days (i.e. >90°F), tornadoes, and soil moisture conditions that is plaguing the Southwest, Plains, Mid-Con, Gulf Coast and Southeast.

New Forecast Cities Reminder

Next week, we will be shifting to "Summer Mode" with respect to the cities provided in our attached forecast tables.  While many hubs remain the same, this will be a new list (based on client feed-back) that best covers Summer areas of concern, until it switches back to "Winter Mode" again later in October 2006.

NWS outlooks finally included below normal temperatures for the Eastern Seaboard last week. Look for this theme to continue, and above normal temperatures continuing over the nation's heartland in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks

From previous discussions, re-included for pertinence:

• New York City (Central Park) accumulated at least 40" of Snow for the 4th consecutive Winter, (breaking and extending the previous record of only 2 consecutive Winters).
   
• January Thaw yielded above normal temperatures for Western, Central and Eastern portions of Nation, establishing the mildest January on record for the US.
   
• Remarkably (despite the thaw), for the December 2005 - March 2006 Heating Degree Day Season, the Eastern U.S. (from New England to the Gulf Coast) registered a Normal or Colder-than-Normal Winter [see attached pdf tables].
   
• The 2006 Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Season has gotten off to an early start and record-pace, with the preliminary U.S. Tornado totals for March [226], April-to-date [270] and Year-to-date [556], establishing new records.
   
• Portions of the Northwest U.S. finally experienced their first wet Winter Season of this Decade.