OPEC sailings to lift global oil at sea off lows: Oil Movements

Singapore (Platts)--28Apr2006
Global oil stocks at sea on route from producers to consumers will likely
rebound beginning mid-May after falling to near three year lows near the end
of April, according to Roy Mason, who tracks global crude tanker activity for
Oil Movements, a UK-based consultancy.
That would bring an estimated four-week rolling average of global oil
stocks at sea to about 454.1 million barrels, off from about 502.7 million
barrels in early March but up about 1% from levels likely to be hit around the
beginning of May.
"OPEC sailings are moving up again after more than two months on the
slide; and the spot tanker market is reaching the end of an exceptionally
steep seasonal decline," Mason wrote in the latest issue of his weekly
newsletter released Thursday.
Notably, Saudi shipping arm Vela has lifted bookings for May cargoes
above levels seen at this time of year over the previous two years. Because
Vela owns and period-charters its own fleet of tankers, its moves in the spot
tanker market do not always translate directly into incremental barrels, Mason
notes.
Still, "because westbound oil in transit (where the Saudi share is
significant) is running at an exceptionally low level, this is, at least, a
signal that westbound oil is likely to be on the way up again," he wrote.
Meanwhile, West African sailings bound for North American ports are
likely to bounce modestly higher in mid-May from two-year lows hit following a
drop off in shipments out of Nigeria. An estimated four-week rolling average
of West Africa-North America sailings are likely to rebound to over 1.4
million b/d by May 15, up from a little over 1.3 million b/d around May 1 but
down from about 1.85 million b/d in December.
--Mike Kobal, michael_kobal@platts.com

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