| President Bush's belated
admission that we are addicted to oil is correct in part, but does
not go far enough. We will have to break the addiction, not just
to Middle Eastern oil, but to all oil, and sooner than expected.
If we deal with the other parts of the energy dilemma he didn't
address, we can make the transition less difficult than it will be
otherwise.
During the 20th century, oil became our energy source of
choice. Consider how much of human activity completely depends on
cheap supplies of fossil fuels, and the depth of the addiction is
clear. Further, we take it completely for granted until our access
is constrained, which happened in the last few years, with oil
prices climbing from $28 to over $70 a barrel. Goldman Sachs has
warned of higher prices for at least five more years and spikes to
over $100 per barrel, which is probably too conservative. Why?
The world's steadily increasing demand for oil has grown to
nearly match the combined production capacity of all oil fields,
which means that reserve capacity has virtually disappeared.
National security experts predict that even fairly small fuel
supply disruptions caused by natural disasters and political
conflicts can have surprisingly disproportionate, severe economic
impacts. We've seen this theory confirmed by hurricanes Katrina
and Rita. With the Gulf of Mexico a bowling alley for climate
change-amplified hurricanes, and growing tensions with Iran and
Venezuela, it's just a question of time until a new crisis will
test the theory again.
In the past we could get out of this bind just by finding and
drilling more oil, but that option won't exist for long. Oil, gas
and coal were all formed millions of years ago, and only finite
quantities exist. Most of the easily accessible fuel supplies were
found a long time ago, and now, new discoveries are small and few.
When half of all the earth's oil is used up, production will
decline, and the remaining oil will be increasingly expensive to
extract. The U.S. Geological Service predicts that world oil
production will peak in 2037, but the Association for the Study of
Peak Oil, an international group of geologists and other
scientists, claims that peak will arrive by 2010.
The Hirsch report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of
Energy, states that "the peaking of world oil production presents
the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management
problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely
mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be
unprecedented." Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, (R-MD) founder of the
Peak Oil Caucus in Congress, affirms the report's call for a
national emergency effort to conserve energy and maximize
efficiency to buy time while we develop alternative fuels, and
solar and wind power.
Both peak oil and global warming are consequences of our
addiction to the easy energy of fossil fuels, and the responses to
the two problems are the same. Where the abstract threat of
melting icecaps has not motivated comfortable Americans, surreally
high energy prices may economically compel us to cut back. If
enough of us grasp the big picture, we may be able to link the
urgency of the coming crises with progress towards sustainable
solutions.
It may be tempting to dismiss price hikes and supply
disruptions as temporary setbacks, or frame them only in terms of
valid contributing factors, such as profiteering oil companies and
terrorists. This misleadingly distracts us from the more profound
challenge, and perpetuates complacency and denial. Worse, partial
truths may be used to justify misguided military campaigns for
control of the world's dwindling oil supplies.
Joining the list of short-sighted solutions are temporary
substitutes like nuclear power and coal, which will leave enormous
environmental damage after they are used up, with the main
problem, our need for sustainable energy, left unresolved for
impoverished future generations. Likewise, neither ANWR, tar
sands, oil shale, hydrogen cars, or cold fusion can be brought to
market in time or quantity to make a difference. What's left is a
full-throttle transition to a sustainable energy infrastructure.
This will yield vast new business opportunities, and by reducing
our dependence on foreign imports, greater national security.
Reducing pollution from burning fossil fuels will lower rates of
asthma, cancer and heart disease, and lowering carbon emissions
will slow climate change, protecting us from extreme heat waves
and flooding.
New York City is already doing a fine job on energy issues, but
much more must be done in light of these new developments.
Businesses, building managers, and individuals can easily adapt
many highly productive energy-saving and cost-cutting measures.
Citizens should urge elected officials, civic groups, and business
leaders to begin preparing now for a fuel-depleted future. Options
such as expanding net metering to commercial buildings, revising
the building code to require all new construction to meet energy
efficiency standards, and creating an emergency energy contingency
plan should all be explored.
Both short-term crises and long term fuel depletion will raise
transportation costs, which will ripple across the economy. To
limit their effect, municipalities should prepare to roll out
fuel-saving International Energy Agency recommendations, such as
programs for car pooling and telecommuting, as well as highway
speed limits, and reduced fees for public transit. Over time,
emergency measures are likely to become standard practice. Next,
we may consider congestion pricing in midtown, and expansion of
mass transit services, especially bus lines, with revitalizing the
national rail system and scaling up alternative fuel production as
top long term priorities. Yet more important than any single
measure is the need for communities to learn about fuel depletion,
and to jointly develop responses.
A peak oil conference set for April 27 - 29 in Manhattan
will bring national and local experts to address the problem. For
conference information, go to www.energysolutionsconference.org
A report, “Preparing NYC for the Coming Energy Crisis,”
offers documentation of the problem, and detailed options for
locally increasing efficiency and sustainability, at:
http://www.peakoilnyc.org/PONYCArticles/Miner1.htm
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