Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Apr 03 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16E03) produced two C1 flares; a C1.8 at 03/1203 UTC and a C1.4 at 03/1625 UTC.

Region 867 continues to increase in area and may be developing a delta in its trailing spots. Region 865 (S11W21), a beta gamma delta sunspot group, continues to exhibit growth and development, particularly in the umbral coverage of the trailing spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Region 865.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 April. On 05 and 06 April, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with active periods possible due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

Class M 20/20/20

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 03 Apr 100

Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 100/100/100

90 Day Mean 03 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 001/002

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 003/008-008/012-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/20/20

Minor storm 05/10/10

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/30/30

Minor storm 10/15/15

Major-severe storm 01/05/05