Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 07 1506 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
and the U.S. Air Force.
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
865 (S11W60) produced two M-class flares today, an impulsive M1
event occurring at 06/0533Z and a second impulsive M1 event
occurring at 06/2042Z. The remainder of the observed flare activity
recorded during the period were B-class events. Region 865
underwent slight decay in sunspot area (530 millionths). This
region continues to depict a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region
869 (S12E24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 865 has the potential for the
production of further impulsive M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A
sustained period of southward Bz was followed by active conditions
between 06/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 07 and 08
April. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are expected on
09 April due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 099
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 018/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/40
Minor storm 05/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/15