Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Apr 19 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No significant activity was observed during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr

Class M 01/01/01

Class X 01/01/01

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 19 Apr 076

Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 075/075/075

90 Day Mean 19 Apr 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 005/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 004/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 005/008-005/008-005/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 20/20/20

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01