Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

Issued: 2006 Apr 26 2200 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2006 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 875 (S10E34) produced an M1/1f flare at 26/1702 UTC. This Region also produced a C9/sf flare at 26/1453 UTC. New Region 877 (S07E52) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Further M-class activity is possible from Region 875.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr

Class M 20/25/25

Class X 05/05/05

Proton 01/01/01

PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 26 Apr 100

Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 100/100/100

90 Day Mean 26 Apr 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 001/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 003/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 003/005-003/005-003/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/10

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15

Minor storm 05/05/05

Major-severe storm 01/01/01