Spring 2006 Providing Tantalizing Clues on Eve of Summer CDD Season

As we switch to "Summer Mode" next week in our forecast tables and commentary themes, there are 3 main U.S. climate topics we need to keep close tabs on that should make April-June 2006 weather even more "intense"  than its 2005 predecessor:

• Moderate, Severe and Extreme Drought conditions continue to expand and exacerbate from the Southwest, into the Plains, across the Gulf Coast States and up the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard.  These are dramatically different hydro-meteorological conditions than what was present in 2005, and pre-Season temperature spikes and heat waves are already materializing.  Government and some popular Seasonal Outlooks continue to indicate NO Spring/Summer warmth for many of these aforementioned areas (and even cool outlooks for some areas), so 'shocking' CDD/GDD/Max-T results could ensue.
   
• The contrasts and clashes between the very hot Continental Tropical Air masses emanating from Mexico/the Southern Plains and the cooler air masses emanating from Ontario Province are spurring Tornadoes week after week at a record clip.  There is a preliminary count of 561 Tornadoes already in 2006 (through 04/18 AM), compared to only 237 Tornadoes in 2005 (through April).
   
• Water temperatures are well above average (and even warmer than this time in 2005) across the Western Gulf of Mexico, around Florida and through the Gulf Stream.  This is helping to mitigate any sea-breeze cooling for Southern seaboard communities, and also building alarming levels of hydrothermal potential energy in the weeks leading up to the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

New Forecast Cities Reminder

Next week, we will be shifting to "Summer Mode" with respect to the cities provided in our attached forecast tables.  While many hubs remain the same, this will be a new list (based on client feed-back) that best covers Summer areas of concern, until it switches back to "Winter Mode" again later in October 2006.

Forecasting the Forecast [04/20]:

NWS outlooks will likely continue their Plains-centered Above Normal Outlooks for both the 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day periods. Below Normal temperatures may be contracted to just the Northeast (i.e. less cool for Southeast), and Above Normal temperatures should be pushed inland slightly away from the Pacific Coastal States.  Look for their confidence to remain moderate to high.

NOAA/CPC Seasonal Outlooks released today continue to indicate NO Spring/Summer warmth for many of these aforementioned areas (and even cool outlooks for some areas), so 'shocking' CDD/GDD/Max-T results could ensue.

From previous discussions, re-included for pertinence:

Less than 24 hours after the conclusion of February, with little fan fare, several locations in the South-Central U.S. soared into the 90's for a day.  If this isolated event we had hi-lighted did not garner attention, substantial April heat recently impacting several southern States probably has.  Today will mark the 7th consecutive day that Dallas has reached at least 86°F, but more impressively, it should also mark the 2nd day in a row eclipsing 100°F.

From the Pacific to the Atlantic, from June - September, it will be difficult for any Summer Season to rival last year's cumulative widespread heat.  But as discussed in previous commentaries and ENSO Reports, there are a few regions that could easily outshine 2005, and we're witnessing the results already.  Ridging, subsidence, sunshine, and compressional warming will combine with worsening drought to skyrocket temperatures in the South this Summer Season, which has arguably already begun.  Heat is becoming a concern early-on, and correspondingly with our advisories, April-May 2006 will be significantly warmer for many parts of the Nation than anything experienced in 2005.